Russia could default as soon as next month, Morgan Stanley says

[M.W.]

That's what I have been saying. Russia will survive even with twice the current sanctions. At what quality of life? That's a different question and I agree with your points. I just tried to point out that those current sanctions are not what brings Russia to its knees.

Russia is a paper-tiger. They won't starve, they have enough basic food production to survive and their transport industry will be fine as well. Anything else is a complete failure at this point. They will be eating their borscht in their dachas while watching Stalin's Putin's speeches like in the good old days.

And it's not the US either, it's effectively most of the world who doesn't like murderers and random violence.

 

[M.W.]

How does Finland let in any Russians? On refugee grounds? Because they certainly don't hold visa nor residence in Finland. I am honestly curious. I have not seen any mass migration of Russians anywhere. Who lets them in? Would love to see factual data. Am open to be corrected and revise my stance when I read factual data that contradict my current train of thought.

Not sure what your beef with me is at this point. You don't like Russia. Point made. I don't hold any opinions of Russia. Nor do I have any allegiances to Russia whatsoever. You accuse me of that on the grounds that's you have a different opinion that I have. Not sure why. Can't we debate the issues rather than calling everyone a troll who disagrees with us?

Can the same not be said about Americans supporting an elite that has nothing than its own self interest in mind and making a few at the top ever richer while completely destroying the middle class that originally build that country? Or Canada or Germany? Or xyz?

Will bite despite you're a Kremlin troll account, registered just to push Putin's propaganda.

1) The exact number of the new Russian emigres is unknown but some estimates have more than 200,000 leaving the country as of March 12.

"Many people I know are emigrating," said Yelena Khanpira, who flew to Turkey with her husband and their child on March 3. "Some two dozen of my friends and acquaintances are leaving."

https://www.rferl.org/a/russians-flee-fearing-war-fallout/31752961.html

There's no exact statistics because Russia would never release actual statistics at this point. But individual countries have said that they've received tens of thousands of Russians in the past weeks. In Finland the queues at the border have never been longer and there's a constant stream of Russians flooding in. Estonia already stopped issuing tourist visas because of the inflow and security concerns.

2) Airplane parts, a lot of mechanical equipment which is imported. Not to mention all semiconductors which Russia doesn't produce at all.

3, 4) You're in a trading forum and display that you don't know how international trade or central banks work in the most simplest form. Pure ignorance and stupidity on your part.

5) Russians have a history of supporting idiotic dictators throughout history, probably more so than any other country. It's not an accident that Stalin and Lenin came to power in Russia.

 

[M.W.]

I did not know that's how financial markets work. I did not read in the Russian foreign bond prospectus that Russian assets abroad can be seized in the event of default. Must have missed that. So if you defaulted on your car loan or mortgage can we take your wife and children and sell them in the open market to make whole on our losses? I did not know they were linked to your ability or inability to service your debt.

Most bondholders are private. But luckily the Russian CB assets held in the west can be used to compensate even if not making them whole.

 

[terr]

This article quotes a Russian economist who estimates 200K people already left.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60697763

And that's only the beginning. Also usually people who leave are the cream of the crop, both in terms of education/expertise and, more importantly, in terms of drive/ambition.

Look at what Russian emigrants contributed to the world outside of Russia (and could have done for Russia if Russia did not insist, for generations, on killing, imprisoning and exiling their best)

Sikorski. Zworykin. Brin. Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel are filled with Russian-born workers.

 

[terr]

When I talk to Russians, I urge them to leave. Demonstrating and protesting is futile and dangerous. Leaving is more efficient than demonstrating and protesting. When you leave, you deprive the rogue pariah state of your contribution, your effort, your labor, your taxes and, ultimately, your children. And give all of that to another, much saner, state, that counteracts the shitty state of origin.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

no wonder Russia asked China for help.

 

[virtusa]

That's not really true. Majority are supporting Putin. There's a loud minority against Putin and his invasion but you're discounting all the senile Russians living in shacks in the middle of nowhere with Putin's picture hanging on the wall. There's a lot of this trash.

Yes ,but these drunk, senile Russians will, like zombies, replace the picture of Putin by a picture of Navalny if he would be President. These senile Russian only worry about availability of alcohol for small money. Even when manipulating elections, Putin got just over the 54% level if I am not mistaken. Elections were 17 to 19 September 2021.
Some analysts even say Putin has in reality only around 30% of the votes.

 

[virtusa]

How does Finland let in any Russians? On refugee grounds? Because they certainly don't hold visa nor residence in Finland. I am honestly curious. I have not seen any mass migration of Russians anywhere. Who lets them in? Would love to see factual data. Am open to be corrected and revise my stance when I read factual data that contradict my current train of thought.

A lot of Russians work in Finland. So they have free access. That's their ground for entrance.
Trains that go from Russia to Finland are for 100% full, trains going from Finland to Russia are only for 30% filled. This is already so for the last 2 weeks. So there is a continuous stream of people moving out of Russia.
You read about the exodus from Russians to Finland, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Oezbekistan, Kirgizia and Kazachstan in all Western newspapers. And tyhe exodus is confirmed by all these countries.
A Russian economist at the Chicago University calls, what happens now, an "unseen event in peacetime".
If you are against Putin you should shut up or leave Russia if you want to stay alive.

Don't play the naive idiot who is willing to accept to change his opinion if there is enough proof. Do you have proof of your "train of thought"? Or is your "train of thought" build on the financial incentives they give you?

 

[M.W.]

Name-calling. Relax bro. It's just politics. No need to rip each other as humans apart. Control your anger. 200k people is nothing for Russia. Even if they have brains and education. Russia's science and math education is on average on way higher standards than that of American average educational standards. Are you seriously suggesting Russia suffers from this exodus in the short term because of a few web developers and guys in computer science?

Millennials are always so angry and focus on the short term. They hear something in newspapers rather than taking into account the entire geopolitical picture. Why do you think oil crashed back to 95 dollars? Because Russian oil makes it to world markets with or without sanctions. I am stating facts here not trying to play any specific angle. For what it's worth Russia might even get paid in USD through China's vast foreign reserves. What does Bloomberg or CNN or BBC or you or I really know? Nothing I can assure you.

A lot of Russians work in Finland. So they have free access. That's their ground for entrance.
Trains that go from Russia to Finland are for 100% full, trains going from Finland to Russia are only for 30% filled. This is already so for the last 2 weeks. So there is a continuous stream of people moving out of Russia.
You read about the exodus from Russians to Finland, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Oezbekistan, Kirgizia and Kazachstan in all Western newspapers. And tyhe exodus is confirmed by all these countries.
A Russian economist at the Chicago University calls, what happens now, an "unseen event in peacetime".
If you are against Putin you should shut up or leave Russia if you want to stay alive.

Don't play the naive idiot who is willing to accept to change his opinion if there is enough proof. Do you have proof of your "train of thought"? Or is your "train of thought" build on the financial incentives they give you?

 

[virtusa]

Name-calling. Relax bro. It's just politics. No need to rip each other as humans apart. Control your anger. 200k people is nothing for Russia. Even if they have brains and education. Russia's science and math education is on average on way higher standards than that of American average educational standards. Are you seriously suggesting Russia suffers from this exodus in the short term because of a few web developers and guys in computer science?

Millennials are always so angry and focus on the short term. They hear something in newspapers rather than taking into account the entire geopolitical picture. Why do you think oil crashed back to 95 dollars? Because Russian oil makes it to world markets with or without sanctions. I am stating facts here not trying to play any specific angle. For what it's worth Russia might even get paid in USD through China's vast foreign reserves. What does Bloomberg or CNN or BBC or you or I really know? Nothing I can assure you.

What does Bloomberg or CNN or BBC or you or I really know? Nothing I can assure you.

When I read above text, you say that we really know nothing. So including you. Why are you then making all these statements that are according to you facts while you confirm you know nothing? Discussing with an idiot like you is useless.

I know: Russians cannot be harmed. The Russian army is a "superpower".

But they cannot quickly take Ukraine like they were hoping. That shows how "superpower" they are. They are just a dwarf trying to convince others that they are giants. ROFLMAO.

Russians are now crying and begging China to help them. They need money and weapons, what you will surely deny but the whole world confirms.
Russia has made a fool of itself in front of the whole world. The elephant has given birth to a mouse. LOL.

Russia's science and math education is on average on way higher standards than that of American average educational standards.

Strange, because the United States GDP is per capita $66,302, while the Russian GDP is per capita $11,436. That's only 17% of the US numbers. Take away oil and gas, and there is nothing left in Russia (except the corruption). Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas.
Probably the information of science and education are fake in Russia. Like most things are fake in Russia.
The Russian soldiers seem to not be part of the "higher standards". They were promised by Putin 4 million rouble if they would go to Ukraine for just a small special operation. When they saw reality a lot of them ran away or sabotaged their vehicles so that they could not go to fight.

But I understand, Russia is in all aspects the superpower of the world.