Russia could default as soon as next month, Morgan Stanley says

[virtusa]

I only posted facts not propaganda. Not sure why you keep on attacking me. I am not pro Russia but I am also not blindly believing what comes out of the mouth of the US administration and have not for a long time. That the Russian economy is reaching a point of bankruptcy is purely your opinion and is not grounded in any facts nor statistics. It's your hunch nothing else.

Studies predict that in the next months 9 million Russians will lose their job and income. If Russia nationalize the Western companies in Russia, these companies will not pay their employees in Russia anymore. Hundreds of thousands of Russian will be the victim of that. We will reach a point where Putin will lose control over his population and then it will be game over. The longterm damage for Russia is already so big that it will even hurt the next generation of Russians. Putin destroys Ukraine, but he destroys Russia as well.

I know people who live in Russia and this is what they see and tell from the real, actual situation:

• Borders are closed for all men, only women and children can still, and do, massively leave Russia. My friends were witness of this happening.
• Prices go up very hard and many things are already not available anymore.
• Foreign currency accounts are blocked for all Russian. They can only take money in Rouble.
• Export of capital is limited.
• Real estate prices in Crimea are crashing and many Russians are selling their houses and flats.
• The big majority of Russians don't want war. They understand now that there is not just a special action going on in Ukraine, as companies from all over the world closed their Russian business, and many Russians have no contact anymore with their children that are probably not alive anymore.Putin uses massive terror to keep the population under control.
• If Ukrainians kill a Russian soldier, they use his mobile phone to call the parents (as their number is in the phone) to tell them their son died in a war with Ukraine. Putin cannot stop that news anymore.

 

[M.W.]

1) and where are those women and children going? Because nobody saw any increase in migration of Russians over the past several weeks. See long lines of women and kids at any European border immigration post? I don't.

2) which things are not available anymore? Airplane parts? Yes. Food? No. Most Russians have lived a shit life by western standards their entire lives. You really think most Russians give a damn that they currently cannot purchase an app on the Apple store? Lol.

3) 99% Russians could not care less what happens to any foreign currency, they don't need foreign currency and never did.

4) 99% Russians have no need to export capital. They don't have meaningful capital to begin with nor do they have a foreign visa to go where their supposed capital is leaving to.

5) the majority of Russians are supportive of Putin, at least so far. A tiny minority protested and disagreed. Everyone else goes about their lives and does not have time to bother with geopolitical considerations. The point of children separated in Russia is equally massive bullshit and a vindictive lie.

6) what a ridiculous point. Happened perhaps once or twice. And even if, this is supposed to turn the support of Russians for Putin?

Your supposed people living in Russia and sharing this "information" should get their heads checked out. But I suppose you came up with this list in one of your drunken stupors. Read it again yourself to realize how uninformed and outright hilarious it sounds.

Studies predict that in the next months 9 million Russians will lose their job and income. If Russia nationalize the Western companies in Russia, these companies will not pay their employees in Russia anymore. Hundreds of thousands of Russian will be the victim of that. We will reach a point where Putin will lose control over his population and then it will be game over. The longterm damage for Russia is already so big that it will even hurt the next generation of Russians. Putin destroys Ukraine, but he destroys Russia as well.

I know people who live in Russia and this is what they see and tell from the real, actual situation:

• Borders are closed for all men, only women and children can still, and do, massively leave Russia. My friends were witness of this happening.
• Prices go up very hard and many things are already not available anymore.
• Foreign currency accounts are blocked for all Russian. They can only take money in Rouble.
• Export of capital is limited.
• Real estate prices in Crimea are crashing and many Russians are selling their houses and flats.
• The big majority of Russians don't want war. They understand now that there is not just a special action going on in Ukraine, as companies from all over the world closed their Russian business, and many Russians have no contact anymore with their children that are probably not alive anymore.Putin uses massive terror to keep the population under control.
• If Ukrainians kill a Russian soldier, they use his mobile phone to call the parents (as their number is in the phone) to tell them their son died in a war with Ukraine. Putin cannot stop that news anymore.

 

[virtusa]

1) and where are those women and children going? Because nobody saw any increase in migration of Russians over the past several weeks. See long lines of women and kids at any European border immigration post? I don't.

2) which things are not available anymore? Airplane parts? Yes. Food? No. Most Russians have lived a shit life by western standards their entire lives. You really think most Russians give a damn that they currently cannot purchase an app on the Apple store? Lol.

3) 99% Russians could not care less what happens to any foreign currency, they don't need foreign currency and never did.

4) 99% Russians have no need to export capital. They don't have meaningful capital to begin with nor do they have a foreign visa to go where their supposed capital is leaving to.

5) the majority of Russians are supportive of Putin, at least so far. A tiny minority protested and disagreed. Everyone else goes about their lives and does not have time to bother with geopolitical considerations. The point of children separated in Russia is equally massive bullshit and a vindictive lie.

6) what a ridiculous point. Happened perhaps once or twice. And even if, this is supposed to turn the support of Russians for Putin?

Your supposed people living in Russia and sharing this "information" should get their heads checked out. But I suppose you came up with this list in one of your drunken stupors. Read it again yourself to realize how uninformed and outright hilarious it sounds.

You got completelly brainwashed by the Russian fake news propaganda. Or you got to much vodka. You, just like the Russian propaganda machine are hilarious.

You registered less then 2 weeks ago. Clearly a Russian troll paid to spread everywhere fake news. Almost all your posts are about Russia.
I am not going details where my information comes from for obvious reasons.

 

[terr]

You got completelly brainwashed by the Russian fake news propaganda. Or you got to much vodka. You, just like the Russian propaganda machine are hilarious.

You registered less then 2 weeks ago. Clearly a Russian troll paid to spread everywhere fake news. Almost all your posts are about Russia.
I am not going details where my information comes from for obvious reasons.

He's an obvious Russian troll.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

He's an obvious Russian troll.

probably, he is a Putin's out of wedlock kid.

 

[d08]

So even if they will default who cares? It's a small fraction of Russia's GDP and what else do they have to lose anyway in the western world? The US thinks it can force Russia to its knees this way? Not at the time line the US wishes or imagines.

Russia is a paper-tiger. They won't starve, they have enough basic food production to survive and their transport industry will be fine as well. Anything else is a complete failure at this point. They will be eating their borscht in their dachas while watching Stalin's Putin's speeches like in the good old days.

And it's not the US either, it's effectively most of the world who doesn't like murderers and random violence.

 

[d08]

1) and where are those women and children going? Because nobody saw any increase in migration of Russians over the past several weeks. See long lines of women and kids at any European border immigration post? I don't.

2) which things are not available anymore? Airplane parts? Yes. Food? No. Most Russians have lived a shit life by western standards their entire lives. You really think most Russians give a damn that they currently cannot purchase an app on the Apple store? Lol.

3) 99% Russians could not care less what happens to any foreign currency, they don't need foreign currency and never did.

4) 99% Russians have no need to export capital. They don't have meaningful capital to begin with nor do they have a foreign visa to go where their supposed capital is leaving to.

5) the majority of Russians are supportive of Putin, at least so far. A tiny minority protested and disagreed. Everyone else goes about their lives and does not have time to bother with geopolitical considerations. The point of children separated in Russia is equally massive bullshit and a vindictive lie.

6) what a ridiculous point. Happened perhaps once or twice. And even if, this is supposed to turn the support of Russians for Putin?

Your supposed people living in Russia and sharing this "information" should get their heads checked out. But I suppose you came up with this list in one of your drunken stupors. Read it again yourself to realize how uninformed and outright hilarious it sounds.

Will bite despite you're a Kremlin troll account, registered just to push Putin's propaganda.

1) The exact number of the new Russian emigres is unknown but some estimates have more than 200,000 leaving the country as of March 12.

"Many people I know are emigrating," said Yelena Khanpira, who flew to Turkey with her husband and their child on March 3. "Some two dozen of my friends and acquaintances are leaving."

https://www.rferl.org/a/russians-flee-fearing-war-fallout/31752961.html

There's no exact statistics because Russia would never release actual statistics at this point. But individual countries have said that they've received tens of thousands of Russians in the past weeks. In Finland the queues at the border have never been longer and there's a constant stream of Russians flooding in. Estonia already stopped issuing tourist visas because of the inflow and security concerns.

2) Airplane parts, a lot of mechanical equipment which is imported. Not to mention all semiconductors which Russia doesn't produce at all.

3, 4) You're in a trading forum and display that you don't know how international trade or central banks work in the most simplest form. Pure ignorance and stupidity on your part.

5) Russians have a history of supporting idiotic dictators throughout history, probably more so than any other country. It's not an accident that Stalin and Lenin came to power in Russia.

 

[d08]

The big majority of Russians don't want war.

That's not really true. Majority are supporting Putin. There's a loud minority against Putin and his invasion but you're discounting all the senile Russians living in shacks in the middle of nowhere with Putin's picture hanging on the wall. There's a lot of this trash.

 

[Amun Ra]

If I borrow $10k USD from you and when I have to replay, I insist on paying you in some random dinars, that is a default effectively. You can't just change the contract one-sided.

If you make it illegal for people to buy products from my business and I owe you money, you can count on it that I'm not paying you shit.

 

[d08]

If you make it illegal for people to buy products from my business and I owe you money, you can count on it that I'm not paying you shit.

Most bondholders are private. But luckily the Russian CB assets held in the west can be used to compensate even if not making them whole.