Russel 2000 might start to crack because of fiscal cliff
- Thread starter hajimow
- Start date
Are you really short this thing? RUT closed at a new all time high today. Do you have a plan for this position or this one of those "it's up too much" trades?
Yes I am long TZA. A very big position. My plan so far is to hold and suffer
. If you really don't believe that I am long, I can send PM you my position in TZA.Today I closed my RIMM position with profit. I sold more naked call 13.5 yesterday and they also expired worthless. I started to short from about 13.5 and never covered and it went up to almost $19 and then it tumbled.
Quote from hajimow:
Yes I am long TZA. A very big position. My plan so far is to hold and suffer
Today I closed my RIMM position with profit. I sold more naked call 13.5 yesterday and they also expired worthless. I started to short from about 13.5 and never covered and it went up to almost $19 and then it tumbled.
Do you understand the concept of relative value and relative strength? For example, if I wanted to be short right now, why short the strongest index in the world, why not short for example X. US Steel can't uptick to save it's life and is in fact rolling over. It's a much better proxy on the economy then small cap stocks. And you wouldn't be taking any pain, you would be making money!!!!
I'm trying to help here. Stop focusing all your time and energy on 3x ETF's or one index. Look for value. The homebuilders are also getting weak (XHB and ITB). You are making this so hard on yourself.
I respect and value your comments. Sometimes things don't go the way you believe they should go. I had a blast last couple of years by taking the pain and not giving up. Maybe this year will be different. I will check the sectors that you mentioned. If US steel and homebuilder sectors are getting weak, don't you think that it means the economy should not be as strong as they declare? I felt that on Friday market wanted to touch the psychological level of 14000 and then we may see a correction. I also believe the consumer semi sector is weak but market is ignoring the news. Many good semi companies had lackluster results and had a weak outlook except QCOM.
From reading your posts you keep talking about what you think the market "should" do. You need to focus more on what it is actually "doing". I'm just trying to be helpful here. I see so many guys on here talking about what the market should do in the future. Nobody knows what the market will do. We can only react to what we see. And what I see is steel and housing is weak but the overall market is strong. The regional banks are VERY strong (KRE and KBE). That is what the market IS doing. Can that change? Of course. Markets change constantly. You would be well served to stop "anticipating" something happening and focusing on what actually IS happening. The old saying "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".
There's another guy on another thread trying to short the USD/JPY. I'm trying to tell him the same thing. He keeps shorting something that is going up every day. Why? He says he "thinks" it's a top. I keep telling him to wait till he actually SEES a top. Then get short. You are not going to miss anything.
If you really want to be short, find something that is weak NOW. If we actually do rollover, the weaker product will drop much harder. If we keep going higher, there is a good chance the weaker product trades sideways or even down.
I track about 30 different sector ETF's and other important ETF's like certain commodities and indices. This gives me a great view of what is happening. And within that landscape there is always something much stronger or much weaker then everything else. It is RARELY the actual broad based index. It's usually a sector within an index or just another sector. Try doing that and your odds will be much more in your favor.
I think intuition helps more in what to look for. Trade ideas. Correlation. The actual mechanics of entering a trade should be very simple. We tend to over complicate things. The trade should be implemented when the market is actually DOING what our intuition tells us it should do. Trying to predict the future is a fools game.
I've been a die hard football fanatic for over 30 years and I was certain SF would have won. Had you let me wait till the first quarter was over to make my prediction, I would have changed my bet.
I personally think people are driven more by their ego then common sense when it comes to trading. People like to predict and people like to be right. I've always said that traders become profitable once they start focusing on making money and not about being right.