Running my own Bitcoin node

[NoahA]

If you think I'm doing anything more complex than what I told you, you're a dum dum.

What you said has nothing to do with how you bought the bottom with a 2.5pt stop. If we are to believe that you are able to find pretty much the exact tops and bottoms 70% of the time, then you clearly need a little more than your list of 5 generic steps.

I'm not begging you to tell me, but stop pretending that anyone can pick the exact tops and bottoms. In fact, most trading literature will state that its very difficult to pick exact tops and bottoms and they discourage traders from trying. If you can do it, that's awesome, and I consider you in a very elite group, but its not because of your simple 5 step program.

 

[NoahA]

Lets run a monte-carlo simulation just for fun. We plug in your 70% win rate, and lets give you just a 1:3 risk to reward. It sounds like it should be at least 1:5 if you are picking tops and bottoms, but lets be on the conservative side. So for this I call a win +$300 and a loss -$100. Tell me, does your equity curve look like this? It should be even better! When will you be rich enough to push the price of bitcoin up for us?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

What you said has nothing to do with how you bought the bottom with a 2.5pt stop. If we are to believe that you are able to find pretty much the exact tops and bottoms 70% of the time, then you clearly need a little more than your list of 5 generic steps.

I'm not begging you to tell me, but stop pretending that anyone can pick the exact tops and bottoms. In fact, most trading literature will state that its very difficult to pick exact tops and bottoms and they discourage traders from trying. If you can do it, that's awesome, and I consider you in a very elite group, but its not because of your simple 5 step program.

You've got to be a Gen Z with that amount of whining.

Lets run a monte-carlo simulation just for fun. We plug in your 70% win rate, and lets give you just a 1:3 risk to reward. It sounds like it should be at least 1:5 if you are picking tops and bottoms, but lets be on the conservative side. So for this I call a win +$300 and a loss -$100. Tell me, does your equity curve look like this? It should be even better! When will you be rich enough to push the price of bitcoin up for us?

View attachment 289309

Yes, pretty much. However, I do have to make allowances for when volatility dies. I cannot make money in a market without volatility

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

What you said has nothing to do with how you bought the bottom with a 2.5pt stop. If we are to believe that you are able to find pretty much the exact tops and bottoms 70% of the time, then you clearly need a little more than your list of 5 generic steps.

I'm not begging you to tell me, but stop pretending that anyone can pick the exact tops and bottoms. In fact, most trading literature will state that its very difficult to pick exact tops and bottoms and they discourage traders from trying. If you can do it, that's awesome, and I consider you in a very elite group, but its not because of your simple 5 step program.

I'll try once again, because you are obviously more dense than a black hole.

The key thing is you TRY to catch the bottom 2 or 3 times. That's it.

Are you so bad that you can't get it 1 out of 3 times, 5 days a week? Come on man.

It's literally a numbers game.

It's a state machine. Here is how I try to trade.

"What is the market doing"
"Oh it is going down"
"OK I will try and short the fattest green candle"
"Oh wait, it is turning up"
"OK I will try and buy the fattest red candle"

If you do this well enough, you can get a high hit rate. Now remove shorting from the equation, it's really not that hard.

 

[NoahA]

I'll try once again, because you are obviously more dense than a black hole.

The key thing is you TRY to catch the bottom 2 or 3 times. That's it.

Are you so bad that you can't get it 1 out of 3 times, 5 days a week? Come on man.

It's literally a numbers game.

It's a state machine. Here is how I try to trade.

"What is the market doing"
"Oh it is going down"
"OK I will try and short the fattest green candle"
"Oh wait, it is turning up"
"OK I will try and buy the fattest red candle"

If you do this well enough, you can get a high hit rate. Now remove shorting from the equation, it's really not that hard.

Listen, I understand that its a game of numbers. I know for me, I don't always play it the same, so I mess with the statistical probability. I am also not around for most of the session, so I have to work with what the market gives in the first 60 or 90 minutes.

I also asked before if you would be willing to share your trades for a week as an example. This would show a good distribution of wins and losses which make the results more tangible. But since all we have to go on is you saying that you can catch tops and bottoms 70% of the time, its a statement that requires a little more backing. I'm sure many here are trying exactly this with much less stellar rules.

Now of course if the ES does 80 points in a day its plausible that you try long a few times with a 5 point stop and eventually it a 50 point winner, but not 70% of the time, not even close. This would also mean that if you're 20 or 30 point ahead, you let it come all the way down to zero since you're looking for that 50 point move. To nail an entry and exit 70% of the time is not realistic. Heck, even saying 1 out of 3 times as you do would already mean the win rate is only 33% if one of those 3 work. Maybe you get lucky on the 2nd try, so that is a 50% win rate, but you see my point.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Listen, I understand that its a game of numbers. I know for me, I don't always play it the same, so I mess with the statistical probability. I am also not around for most of the session, so I have to work with what the market gives in the first 60 or 90 minutes.

I also asked before if you would be willing to share your trades for a week as an example. This would show a good distribution of wins and losses which make the results more tangible. But since all we have to go on is you saying that you can catch tops and bottoms 70% of the time, its a statement that requires a little more backing. I'm sure many here are trying exactly this with much less stellar rules.

Now of course if the ES does 80 points in a day its plausible that you try long a few times with a 5 point stop and eventually it a 50 point winner, but not 70% of the time, not even close. This would also mean that if you're 20 or 30 point ahead, you let it come all the way down to zero since you're looking for that 50 point move. To nail an entry and exit 70% of the time is not realistic. Heck, even saying 1 out of 3 times as you do would already mean the win rate is only 33% if one of those 3 work. Maybe you get lucky on the 2nd try, so that is a 50% win rate, but you see my point.

I'm better than you, I am giving you a 33% chance.

 

[NoahA]

I'm better than you, I am giving you a 33% chance.

LOL... at least you have a sense of humor. Ok, lets just look at the RTH session and find the lows for going long. You're telling me you caught most of these lows that I mark with a green arrow? You're lucky that on many of these days, there was a rally. There are some days where it does nothing but sell all day. That would be a 0 for 3 day if all you're doing is trying to get into a long.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I'm blocking you for being infinitely stupid (and yea, caught a buch of those)