running money - 35% a year
- Thread starter coolweb
- Start date
I've exited 1.2712 , -5 tick loss.
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2) I'm having conflicting LOGIC on how to play this. On one hand I Want to move out of USD, on another hand USD -> Euro is not the right move , considering EURO has more problems to come.
3) this would not be where I would be buying at the lows. So I'm entering with small size.
4) I think entering here long is the wrong idea on EUR, there is more bad news to come. <B>The price action is wrong to enter at this "low" , it can go lower.</b>
5) the topping of highs of USD is whats making me execute externous trades , trying to get out of USD,
6) I believe EURO would be the wrong asset class to exit to right now. It can rally hard, but would be hard to risk control.
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2) I'm having conflicting LOGIC on how to play this. On one hand I Want to move out of USD, on another hand USD -> Euro is not the right move , considering EURO has more problems to come.
3) this would not be where I would be buying at the lows. So I'm entering with small size.
4) I think entering here long is the wrong idea on EUR, there is more bad news to come. <B>The price action is wrong to enter at this "low" , it can go lower.</b>
5) the topping of highs of USD is whats making me execute externous trades , trying to get out of USD,
6) I believe EURO would be the wrong asset class to exit to right now. It can rally hard, but would be hard to risk control.
I made a few pretty small stopped out trades today, I Don't think they were good,
a) will contemplate how to handle this USD issue,
I'm thinking USD -> GOLD.
b) We can't do USD -> Euro , no way, the bottoming process will take too long and the swings too much.
c) It must be USD -> gold.
d) GOLD hasn't showed me entries yet.
e) Patience? I guess, back to patience, Losing small money makes me think clearly again
<h2> Patience</h2>
a) will contemplate how to handle this USD issue,
I'm thinking USD -> GOLD.
b) We can't do USD -> Euro , no way, the bottoming process will take too long and the swings too much.
c) It must be USD -> gold.
d) GOLD hasn't showed me entries yet.
e) Patience? I guess, back to patience, Losing small money makes me think clearly again
<h2> Patience</h2>
Plan Capital protection:
I will wait for GOLD entries,
- Gold's price action can actually be near TOPPING, so it has to show me its bullish for me to enter.
- fk euro, euro looks low but it can get lower ( quite a common happenece)
- an uptrending asset class gives me lower risk but lower reward, on the other hand <b> I can't stomach the downtrending high risk high reward type of trades.</b>
I will wait for GOLD entries,
- Gold's price action can actually be near TOPPING, so it has to show me its bullish for me to enter.
- fk euro, euro looks low but it can get lower ( quite a common happenece)
- an uptrending asset class gives me lower risk but lower reward, on the other hand <b> I can't stomach the downtrending high risk high reward type of trades.</b>
One of my concerns while trading EUR:
I've never been profitable trading EUR or S&P500-ES or CL or GC (gold) , directional wise, I use them for hedging, but never made a consistent profit trading them naked directional.
If I 'm entering GOLD I must do it through an equity stock hedge,
If I'm entering CL, I'll do it with an equity oil stock hedge.
<b>If I'm entering EUR, I wouldn't know what to hedge it with.</b>
Naked directional long on any futures, is just plain dangerous. Putting a 7 fig position naked directional on any futures = sucidal for me. Amaranth Advisors for reference.
I've never been profitable trading EUR or S&P500-ES or CL or GC (gold) , directional wise, I use them for hedging, but never made a consistent profit trading them naked directional.
If I 'm entering GOLD I must do it through an equity stock hedge,
If I'm entering CL, I'll do it with an equity oil stock hedge.
<b>If I'm entering EUR, I wouldn't know what to hedge it with.</b>
Naked directional long on any futures, is just plain dangerous. Putting a 7 fig position naked directional on any futures = sucidal for me. Amaranth Advisors for reference.
The only way I can trade EUR, is if I accept 1.27 as my basis EURO price, Its not a directional trade, <i>its a currency exchange.</i> I don't think I'm willing to accept 1.27 as the base price, Its not a good trade imo overall then.
Alright i'm out these are the thoughts for the day.
No more trading.
Alright i'm out
these are the thoughts for the day.No more trading.
I think we are close to the top on equities, bottom for EURUSD, I don't think the 2 can operate in the same direction.
Heres how its going to play out tomorrow morning and afterhours:
1. ES will rally up a bit more afterhours
2. ES will open with a gap up , and spike up a little
3. ES should reverse. And start coming down a bit
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tomorrow
size: I should be shorting small, aka 1 contract max or 50k
need to build up experience on shorting again, Money is not important..
**EDIT , no shorting tomorrow, just realized it would be too early.
Heres how its going to play out tomorrow morning and afterhours:
1. ES will rally up a bit more afterhours
2. ES will open with a gap up , and spike up a little
3. ES should reverse. And start coming down a bit
------------
tomorrow
size: I should be shorting small, aka 1 contract max or 50k
need to build up experience on shorting again, Money is not important..
**EDIT , no shorting tomorrow, just realized it would be too early.