running money - 35% a year

playbook for tomorrow:

1) ES will gap up tomorrow,
-> I'm selling into the open , the full position
a. Reason= I don't recognize this price action anymore.
b. My balls hurt last night. No joke, Thats from stressing. I close positions when my balls hurt,
c. Too many mistakes in the management of the trade
d. I should net about 5% of total capital on this trade. I was looking for 12% . Net profit ranged up to 8% or so. Bad management of the trade.



2) Earnings is coming out on wednesday
Heres what I think will happen
a.They will take down the price till the afternoon so everybody runs out of the stock
b. Earnings = gamble, so No way I'm taking a position into earnings.


3) Market looks weak. I want out.

4) I'm tired of this poly bullshit, poly my fucking ass. I want out

5) I was suppose to sell 2/3rds of the position last Night near close.<b> I hit LOGOUT on one of my accounts instead of stock trade. and the market closed.</b> So I only closed out 1/3rd of the trade. Ridioclous, lol.
 
30 minutes till open,
liquidating at open, well 5 minutes into open.
Should be a nice profit, Market gapping up :)
Getting ready to sell all.
 
Quote from coolweb:

in large poly 30.33-.37
hedge short ES 1198.25
More...

exit all 31.85 avg

Hedge ES Net = +1.67% ( closed out yesterday)
Position Net = +5.01%
Add Loss = -1.00%

Total Net = around 5.5% of total capital.

----------------------
Gain

12% gold + 5.5% this - 1% other tests =
16.5% total portfolio this year.

--------------

Ok 8 more months till 2010. I think we can reach 50% this year.
 
Good luck to all the longs, you'll need it. GS earnings may be topped, but its priced for perfection.


a) Hope this Directional trading journal is interesting to all, its relatively profitable for me as well.

b) earnings for poly will come out tomorrow , pure gambling if in the position. So not even going to bother, I trade price purely.

c) I'm going on vacation for a few weeks,
next trade = few weeks from now I'm sure.

Adios!
 
ok , I'm still on vacation, but I'm watching the markets.


Few thoughts

a)
[12:31] stops looks topping
[12:31] Greece downgraded to junk status by S&P
By NICHOLAS PAPHITIS and PAN PYLAS © 2010 The Associated Press
April 27, 2010, 11:03AM
[12:31] this event will dominoe to the US

b)
more capital in my accounts now, have a family member invest. + I added more money.
I went in and sold all his shares, in cash.


c) bias: No Bias, Nothing, Not going to be in the market.
prediction: big 2 month fall.
how to play it: do nothing, sit out and laugh at the losers.

d) Sounds like a long ass extended vacation.... from here on.


e) I will enter LONG, (no shorting anymore) once I see opportunity.


f) Managing more money, I have more responsbility, will likely do less test trades, such as [shorts], but still might with tiny amounts maybe 300 shares of spy.




g) HARDWARE upgrade.
I bought a used fujitsu tablet touchscreen !4210 , dualcore 1.7ghz or some shit, 12.1 inch screen, 3gig ram, 60 gig hd, dvd-rw, corporate used on ebay $400 US, DEAL!
3.5 hour battery + backup modular battery (3 hours) = total 7 hour battery.
Now I have an extra laptop, actually 3 , not using another one, might ship it off to colocation
as a windows server 200.

I need an extra LCD for my order screens.
PLAN: buy a doublesight 8.9 inch monitor (1lb screen $150 ) I like the lightness because I like compactness for travel, (just need another order screen)
Plan#2: get maxivista double screen through LAN + crossover cat5
Went with plan #2
Now I'm trading with 2 laptop lcd screens. Pretty nice.
fujitsu 12.1 inch screen + 15 inch gateway laptop connected by a crossover cable + maxivista


h) 35% isn't far away.
 
Been 2 weeks since my last trade,
from the looks of it I'll have to wait another 2 weeks -8 weeks (bear market of 3-4 months!)
very boring.

<b>Timing.</b>

The key to all endeavours may it be business or trading or even love, the aspect of timing is pinnacle.
The right timing excite.com , will net you billions in IPO
The wrong timing, excite.com in 2010 , will not even net you $5.
The exact second to move out of the way and hook someone in the face, wins the fight instantly.
The boar hunter sits in the woods quietly for 3 hours on end, to snipe out a pig.
The fisherman sits idly with his fishing rod for 30 minutes until someone bites.

These are all examples of how timing is utilized in successful endeavours. Waiting.
Execute feverishly during opportunity, Wait when there is none.
 
Confidence in entries. Effects win ratios and profits.


1) In public posting in real time, I've posted about 4 "LARGE" trades"
3 were profitable
1 was a stop out
75% win ratio

2) I've also posted about 5-10 "small" trades, aka test trade.
3 were profitable, 7 were losers. 30% win ratio at best.


3) As you can see, confidence plays an importance role in sizing. Not only does win ratio goes up, a large size makes you large money.


No reason to be a piker on a trade you are confident.
 
Not making money when other people are making money.
There are lots of strategies and trading styles, One makes money in one time period , another makes in time period #2.


Mcdonalds won't be pissed at his customer Joe, if Joe decides its KFC tuesday. Different days = Different people make money.
Mcdonalds just has to focus on making sure the burgers are cooked right on Joe's Mcdonalds Thursday.
If Mcdonalds starts worrying about converting Joe's KFC tuesday and starts making half ass chicken wings. Thats not consistent.

Consistency is making money on your day, your way, your niche.
Inconsistency is jumping from burgers, to chicken wings, to pizza . This is not business, This is fad following, Focus on your game, The only thing consistent will be you making money in your niche.

At the end of the year, KFC will make money from JoeTuesday, McDonalds will make money from JoeThursday.
Everybody makes money as long as they do their own shit correctly.<b>The only people who don't make money are people who think they can do everything.</b>
 
Goals of capital in play
June '10 - 500k
Dec '10 - 900k
Dec'11 - 1.5M

35% would be a nice growth with VERY LOW RISK by then.
$450k net per year.
Capital in play growth will be from my own money + profits from the markets.
Every profitable trade = I add money + market money .

Curent cap in play - 425k

----------------------

Incoming money velocity will be high once I reach a certain level of experience, Each profitable trade will be worth around $50-80k . So capital in play starts to add up fast as time proceeds.
 
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