running money - 35% a year

anyway regardless of my theories,
<b>today was not good trading I'll admit</b>
Even for small size trading ,<ul> I like to be right</ul> I like to represent damn fine trading.
I do not like giving the market any money.
that money can be used for steaks and beer and movie tickets.
i'll be back tomorrow.
 
today was not good trading? LOL. What better set up can there be than before the open today? LOL.

Quote from coolweb:

anyway regardless of my theories,
<b>today was not good trading I'll admit</b>
Even for small size trading ,<ul> I like to be right</ul> I like to represent damn fine trading.
I do not like giving the market any money.
that money can be used for steaks and beer and movie tickets.
i'll be back tomorrow.
More...
 
Quote from asiaprop:

today was not good trading? LOL. What better set up can there be than before the open today? LOL.
More...

Very good 20/20 hindsight vision there.
Next time try posting the call so we can take advantage of those better setups I'm missing.
 
I'm still very bearish on the market day intrday
lets say ES 1161.50 or PCX 19.83 here
Not going to short though cause of the shitty trading I did earlier.
will sit out and watch how it plays out


Don't need to be in the trade to learn price action!

------

watching brooklyns finest , sup greenpoint!
 
The market is controlled not by numbers, or by quants, In fact quanting always leads to exponential losses.
Quantifying is to make everything numerical like behavior is rigid enough to be numerical.
Imagine a sucicidal guy in college, the average numbers lets say 1 in 100,000 will take their life.
Now imagine the suicidal guy in virgina tech, He is definately not quantifable, He is an outlier, Outlier in what? Not only did he take other peoples life, He took 10 other people with him.
This is not quantifiable, Human behavior always have outliers.
Outliers are the only constant, Quanting finance, and not accounting for the outliers is ridioclous, its not risk management.
-----------

When We adapt behavior finance theories onto trading, We must always realize, The extremes aka outliers will always be reached, But once the outlier , or extremes is hit, that is the most safest entry point , because a #2nd outlier is not on the horizon.

There couldn't be a second virginatech shooter 5 days after
There couldn't be a second vtech shooter 1 day after the first.
So you can bet on how safe it'll be right afte the first outlier.

behavioral finance, Better way to predict price movements.
 
behavior of selloffs and the risk of shorting

Selloff truely only happen during fear, The behavior of wall street is not in the mode of selling off.
Mutual funds , Pensions , when securities are bought, their behavior is not to sell the next day, its to hold.
Selling genuinely happens when there is intense fear, such as a bank run, or bankruptcy. To sell short a security because it is high or low , does not capitalize on instrinic human behavior.
There is no fear yet to generate true selling.
Why the market tends to trend upwards for a long long time...

short patterns are generally more unreliable.
 
I'm going to enjoy this journal, Any mistakes I make which is not going to be many at this stage, will be reviewed with a microscope by me and my crazy friends (flipflopper), So...As the journal goes on, my trading should be exponentially more accurate.


Lots of $$$$$$ to be made.

----------
New updates

1. Test trades of price action will only be done on 100 shares, to reduce any losses, yet we learn more about price action.
2. Real trades, will be done with 200-700k as usual.
3. I was testing with around $25k , which is a waste of money now that I think about it. No need, Test with $2k or 100 shares max.
Yesterdays trade should have been done with 100 shares of PCX.
4. Why real money should be used in testing?
Because I will sit there and watch price move tick by tick, the pattern becomes engrained in my memory when you do that.



------------------------

Why continue to test trades?

At this stage I know when to put large money on a trade, and when its just a test trade.
Theres not that many really profitable price action patterns, but the ones we don't make money, we remember , its better to keep "Exercising" then just stop and wait for a professional match.

Also at a trade a month, I get pretty bored. But I won't put on large bored trades...<b> I'll put on small test trades to feed my boredom.
</b> dickaround trades I call it.
 
Unlike most people and one of the fews.
Investing and trading is my only source of income.
I manage commercial real estate and trading income.
Its similar to real estate investing, I sit around and wait till the market drops, go in and buy up cheap properties,
I did this around 2001 WTC , and SARS 2003


To me trading is a skill, I keep polishing and improving my skill, when I wield my trading skill, it should be well exercised, It should be well practiced, like a boxer training at the gym 5 hours a day daily, for 1 main fight 5 months later. To me its the same thing, I take one large trade a month, I keep practicing my skills, when the right opportunity comes , My patern recognition will be sharp, My capital will be there, My defense stop loss will be there, My execution should be flawless. <b>
A large profitable trade is super easy with no heat because of the skill preparation.
</b>


The prize money should be large, Investing is an enjoyable profession.
 
yep I agree why shoot for 100% when you make a ton of $$$'s going for 40% and safer. Sometime sI do make a lot more but my main goal is low risk/low stress.

O.P.M. prefers low risk/low drawdowns, there's is no point in making 100% one year to lose 60% the year after and so on. Slow and steady wins the race.
 
No entries.

1) Missed(Not taken actually) entry on LONG IGT 17.85 , Yesterdays Low = 17.67
I saw price float around 17.82 .83 .84
Risk = .15 cents
.15 cents = 1% risk.
I was not comfortable with 1% risk , I prefer like 0.50% risk (9cents) or 0.30% risk. (5 cents)

2) with a 1% risk I would have to reduce my size, to around $70k
with 0.30% or 0.50% I would have went into decent size, 300k

3) The risk factor makes a big difference in my decision to enter.
Because it changes how I size the position.



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My new updated rules:
Either 100 shares on entry
Or full size 5000-10,000 shares on entry.
No inbetweens.
 
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