Rule of 10 Journal

[jagmot]

Quote from monti1a:

I suspect that taking these trades without any filter will cause it to bomb as the system reverts back to it's mean due to the law of large numbers...imho...

That is the purpose of this journal. Let's prove it right or wrong by trading (paper) instead of using everyone's assumptions/suspicions/hunches (or whatever you want to call it).

 

[jagmot]

Since we were stopped out on the last trade, there is not yet a reaction low to place a new sell (at least yet)

Right now we would be trailing with a buy from a reaction high (trailer currently at 1276.5) but could continue moving higher from here.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from volente_00:

What was wrong with the short signal from yesterdays 63.5 at 73.5 last night

I usually don't mix the overnight hours with the previous day's movement, but feel free to post in REAL TIME....What would have been your exit?

Otherwise the long at 1264 worked beautifully, ES is at 1284...

(I was away this morning and just got back, sometimes it is nice to leave.)

 

[jagmot]

Quote from jagmot:

Since we were stopped out on the last trade, there is not yet a reaction low to place a new sell (at least yet)

Right now we would be trailing with a buy from a reaction high (trailer currently at 1276.5) but could continue moving higher from here.

Quick update

We currently have a new reaction low at 1282.75 so we would place a sell order at 1292.75 with a stop of 1295.75.

On the buy side the buy is currently in place at 1279.75 with a stop at 1276.75.

 

[jagmot]

Quote from jagmot:

Quick update

We currently have a new reaction low at 1282.75 so we would place a sell order at 1292.75 with a stop of 1295.75.

On the buy side the buy is currently in place at 1279.75 with a stop at 1276.75.

Ok our short is in. Also remember our rule about 2 failures in a row. This protects from trend days. So if this trade fails, we are done for 24 hours (ie we won't start trading again til 1:35PM EST monday)

1292.75
Stop 1295.75
Target 1282.75

 

[deaddog]

Quote from jagmot:

Quick update

We currently have a new reaction low at 1282.75 so we would place a sell order at 1292.75 with a stop of 1295.75.

On the buy side the buy is currently in place at 1279.75 with a stop at 1276.75.

My chart shows a low of 81.50 @ 10:05(IB data) Why would that not be the reaction low? (Would have been stopped out)

Also at 10:45 a low of 82.00 (Would have been stopped out)

 

[volente_00]

Quote from jagmot:

Ok our short is in. Also remember our rule about 2 failures in a row. This protects from trend days. So if this trade fails, we are done for 24 hours (ie we won't start trading again til 1:35PM EST monday)

1292.75
Stop 1295.75
Target 1282.75

Is today not a trend day in your opinion ?

 

[monti1a]

Quote from deaddog:

My chart shows a low of 81.50 @ 10:05(IB data) Why would that not be the reaction low? (Would have been stopped out)

Also at 10:45 a low of 82.00 (Would have been stopped out)

Agree...I don't even see an 82.75 reaction low on my chart...

 

[jagmot]

Quote from deaddog:

My chart shows a low of 81.50 @ 10:05(IB data) Why would that not be the reaction low? (Would have been stopped out)

Also at 10:45 a low of 82.00 (Would have been stopped out)

Thank you for the question. I still may get stopped out on the trade.

The reason why I used 82.75 as the reaction low was because that is where the market reacted (ie go higher). I used the reaction low at the 12:05PM EST 5 min bar. The price broke out on the next bar and moved higher.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Pekelo:

I usually don't mix the overnight hours with the previous day's movement, but feel free to post in REAL TIME....What would have been your exit?

Otherwise the long at 1264 worked beautifully, ES is at 1284...

(I was away this morning and just got back, sometimes it is nice to leave.)

This is why it is so critical to trail your stop once in the trade. If you just blindly fade every 10 point move, then you will not be in the position to let your winners run.