Rule of 10 Journal

Quote from OldTrader:

Could you explain why you're using a "reaction high of 1297"?

What I see on the chart is a move up to 1299.00 around 2:30PM EST.

I see one 5 minute bar that moves from 1295.50 to 1297.25 around 3PM EST. Is that the "reaction high" you refer to? If so, that is a very small reaction. Why would you use that?

It seems to be working for the moment by the way. I just don't get why you used it?

OldTrader
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I'm using the 5min down bar at 2:55pm EST. Price moves from 1297 to 1290 within the next bar.

As someone who has never traded r10 before, I'm starting to see the trouble in actually trading it.

Where it gets "tough for me" is we can look later and see at 3:10pm EST we see another reaction. This however was not enough of a reaction, since the next few bars retraced most of the move.

If we keep looking at all reactions, we would never get a trade..ie we would keep moving the buy or sell based on previous reactions.

I can see the logic in arguing then, why didn't we move the buy stop down on the 3:25pm EST bar?
 
KISS


The last reaction high was 1307 on monday afternoon, we then hit a low of 1297.5, According to jag's system the trade would not have been taken due to it only being 9.5 This is why i believe one must look to enter these trades between 9 and 11 points from the move with the average being 10. The next move from 97.5 with the short signal at 1307.5. Since the first reaction low was 97.5 then your next long signal would be 87.5 area.
 
Quote from jagmot:


2 for 6 (1st trade)
+7

3 for 7 (2nd trade)
+17
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A 43% win rate with an average of nearly 6 points a day. Now do the math on how many of those losing trades came after you let a win turn into a loss.
 
Quote from volente_00:

A 43% win rate with an average of nearly 6 points a day. Now do the math on how many of those losing trades came after you let a win turn into a loss.
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That was the plan for this past weekend before I got sick...a bunch of the trades went from +5 to +8 before failing. I should get to it this weekend.
 
While you are at it ,could you include profitable trade from 3 points as that is your set stop loss number. The point being that a 3 point is effectively a cover on a "stop" trade.

This looks like an interesting exercise and I going to attempt to set up a risk management formula based upon the outcome of your results that I intend to offer.

I must tell you that I don't have a clear understanding of your "reaction high/lows", so I will simply follow your guidance.
 
Quote from jagmot:

That was the plan for this past weekend before I got sick...a bunch of the trades went from +5 to +8 before failing. I should get to it this weekend.
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While your at it, also crunch the numbers on how many of the hard rule 10 point gainers went on to be 20+ point moves.

:)
 
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