Roulette Wheel Game
- Thread starter JB3
- Start date
I like the positive expectancy of the game, but the positive expectancy relies on repeated trials....if u get hit by the 2% tail on the first roll...than what? In no circumstance would I ever risk 100% to make 3%. I'd need some sort of hedge to bring my risk down to 10-20% for me to want to play
Bingo. As I said before, even taking winnings out of the game requires surviving a minimum of 34 spins in a row just to get to the point where losing the original account doesn't leave you a net loss. And surviving 34 spins is just barely above 50% likely. Risking a lot for a gain of a little in basically a 50/50 bet. Not my idea of a good investment.
I'm saying you win whether you land on red or black.
How did you come up with 15% gain after 5 spins? A very simple simulation shows that on average, after 5 spins, assuming no compounding, you'd make about 4%, not 15%.
And after 50 spins, the average is now a loss of about 9%.
Here is the code (Java):
Code:
import java.util.Random;
public class Simulation {
public static void main(String[] args) {
Random rnd = new Random();
int spins = 5;
long trials = 1000000;
double averageGain = 0;
for (long trial = 1; trial <= trials; trial++) {
double gain = 0;
for (int spin = 1; spin <= spins; spin++) {
int outcome = rnd.nextInt(100) + 1; // random number between 1 and 100, inclusive
if (outcome <= 2) {
gain = -100; // got "0" or "00" slot
break;
} else {
gain += 3;
}
}
averageGain += gain;
}
averageGain /= trials;
System.out.println("Average gain or loss after " + spins + " spins : " + averageGain);
}
}
Last edited:
Every successful spin nets you 3% gain to your account balance.
Let's say you had $1000 in your starting account balance. And we are not compounding to make the math easier. So we put $1000 on the line on every spin, and you get +$30 for every spin.
Spin 1) $1030
Spin 2) $1060
Spin 3) $1090
Spin 4) $1120
Spin 5) $1150
$1150/$1000 = 1.15 or +15%.
Let's say you had $1000 in your starting account balance. And we are not compounding to make the math easier. So we put $1000 on the line on every spin, and you get +$30 for every spin.
Spin 1) $1030
Spin 2) $1060
Spin 3) $1090
Spin 4) $1120
Spin 5) $1150
$1150/$1000 = 1.15 or +15%.
For all of those people that say they will not play this game because you can hit 0 or 00 on your first spin, and lose your whole account. That is technically true, so can a black swan financial event.
Asked another way: At what odds would you play? What if the odds were 99% winning instead 98%, and the payout if +10% per winning spin?
I'm not trying to change the rules now, but I'm seeing if people's minds change at what risk. At some point, you have to look at it as, I'm going to take this risk.
It is interesting because this is trading, where you have to risk something to get something.
Asked another way: At what odds would you play? What if the odds were 99% winning instead 98%, and the payout if +10% per winning spin?
I'm not trying to change the rules now, but I'm seeing if people's minds change at what risk. At some point, you have to look at it as, I'm going to take this risk.
It is interesting because this is trading, where you have to risk something to get something.