Rouhani Drops Coronavirus Bombshell: "25 Million Iranians Have Been Infected"

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ro...bshell-25-million-iranians-have-been-infected

From the start of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which for a time had the second highest infection rate after China during the early phase of the global pandemic, it was widely believed that authorities there were severely downplaying the true number of cases. But it was also understood the country's already hurting and strained health system would lack for testing and proper care, given also there was a world shortage of test kits.

President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday confirmed much of this prior skepticism toward Iran's official case count. He dropped a bombshell statement which if true means Iran far surpasses America's case count (at over 3.6 million), currently the most infected country in the world.

Rouhani said a whopping 25 million Iranians have likely been infected with the coronavirus, in the first such statement of its kind affirming that Iran's true numbers are far higher than the official current figure of 271,606.

His office did admit, however, that his 25 million figure is an "estimated scenario". If this estimate is anywhere near accurate, it would mean Iran infections alone would surpass the global total of over 14 million.
 
I guess the market is going to have a serious serious gap down Sunday night, because now that Iran has come clean, so will all the other countries with fake numbers. South Korea anyone? China?
 
now that Iran has come clean, so will all the other countries with fake numbers. South Korea anyone? China?

(Republic of) Texas?
https://communityimpact.com/dallas-...ate-could-raise-case-counts-in-collin-county/
A probable case of COVID-19 in Texas can now be confirmed by a positive FDA-approved lab result paired with certain clinical criteria or certain epidemiological links. (Courtesy Adobe Stock)

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By Elizabeth Ucles | 6:27 PM May 19, 2020 CDT | Updated 3:20 PM May 20, 2020 CDT

Revised definitions for probable COVID-19 cases and related deaths by the Texas Department of State Health Services could result in a spike of reported cases of the virus, according to a county official.

Aisha Souri, an epidemiology department official for the county, informed Collin County commissioners of the reasoning behind the state’s decisions at a May 18 meeting.

The definition for a confirmed COVID-19 case has not changed and is determined by a positive polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, test result from a lab, Souri said.

A probable case of COVID-19 can now be confirmed by a positive FDA-approved lab result paired with certain clinical criteria or certain epidemiological links, she said.

However, a probable case can also be determined without an FDA-approved test if someone meets definitions of certain clinical criteria and epidemiological links, Souri said.
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“That still gets counted towards the case count,” she said. “It’s different. It’s not confirmed; it’s probable; but it’s still a case.”

Collin County Judge Chris Hill said he is worried COVID-19 cases will spike in a way that does not accurately represent the virus’s spread in the county.

“I fear that this is coming at a time when we’re just now starting to reopen,” he said during the meeting. “If the numbers jump in a false way, it’s going to start to be very concerning to our citizens that we’re actually going backwards.”

The state—which will soon take over contact tracing of COVID-19 cases for all of Texas—is expected to report probable cases separately from confirmed cases, Hill said.

Additionally, a positive PCR test result will no longer be required to determine a COVID-19-related death, Souri said.

If COVID-19 was determined to be a possible cause of death—even among other possible causes—it will be counted as a COVID-19-related death, she said.

“That also has the opportunity for COVID deaths to go up dramatically,” Hill said.

Clinical criteria needed to meet the definition of a probable COVID-19 includes:
  • at least two of the following symptoms: fever that is measured or subjective, chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, or new smell and taste disorders;
  • at least one of the following symptoms: cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing; or
  • severe respiratory illness with at least one of the following: clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia, or acute respiratory distress syndrome and no alternative more likely diagnosis.

Epidemiological links needed to meet the definition of a probable case includes:

  • close contact with a confirmed or probable case of COVID-19;
  • close contact with a person with clinically compatible illness and linkage to a confirmed case of COVID-19; or
  • travel to or residence in an area with sustained, ongoing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Close contact, Souri said, is defined by being within 6 feet for at least a period of 10 minutes to 30 minutes or more depending on exposure.

“There are 15 different options on how you can be classified as a probable case,” she said.

Someone in a location considered endemic, Souri said, satisfies the definition for an epidemiological link for a probable case.

“Right now, Texas has stated that they are considering the state as an endemic area,” she said.

Hill said the state being endemic has a significant impact on COVID-19 case counts in the county. All county residents satisfy the epidemiological link by residing in Collin County, he said.

“If you have a subjective fever and you have a headache and you live in Collin County, you now meet the qualifications to be a probable COVID patient,” Hill said. “It is remarkable how low the standard is now.”
COLLIN COUNTY CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF STATE HEALTH SERVICES CHRIS HILL AISHA SOURI

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By Elizabeth Ucles

Elizabeth is the reporter for Community Impact Newspaper's Frisco edition. She graduated from St. Edward's University with a degree in Writing and Rhetoric with a journalism concentration and a minor in Spanish in May 2019. Elizabeth covers public and higher education, development and transportation.
 
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ro...bshell-25-million-iranians-have-been-infected

From the start of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which for a time had the second highest infection rate after China during the early phase of the global pandemic, it was widely believed that authorities there were severely downplaying the true number of cases. But it was also understood the country's already hurting and strained health system would lack for testing and proper care, given also there was a world shortage of test kits.

President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday confirmed much of this prior skepticism toward Iran's official case count. He dropped a bombshell statement which if true means Iran far surpasses America's case count (at over 3.6 million), currently the most infected country in the world.

Rouhani said a whopping 25 million Iranians have likely been infected with the coronavirus, in the first such statement of its kind affirming that Iran's true numbers are far higher than the official current figure of 271,606.

His office did admit, however, that his 25 million figure is an "estimated scenario". If this estimate is anywhere near accurate, it would mean Iran infections alone would surpass the global total of over 14 million.

A lot of epidemiologists think the true infection count far higher than we know of. When NY did it’s initial survey of persons with antibodies, they found something like 21% of NYers had antibodies, whereas they had a confirmed case count of about 4%. Thats a five fold factor. Ten fold (actually Rouhani is claiming a one-hundred fold factor) seems a bit much, though.
 
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More than expected are infected equals fantastic news. Many of us, including some of the experts have been saying the number of people infected has been dramatically higher all along. This means the morality rate is even lower, the need for hospitalization when infected is much lower, when infected you'll probably have little to no symptoms, and means we're closer to the end of the virus than the beginning. Fair guess is we are pushing 60 to 70 million already infected in USA. Very good news.
 
More than expected are infected equals fantastic news. Many of us, including some of the experts have been saying the number of people infected has been dramatically higher all along. This means the morality rate is even lower, the need for hospitalization when infected is much lower, when infected you'll probably have little to no symptoms, and means we're closer to the end of the virus than the beginning. Fair guess is we are pushing 60 to 70 million already infected in USA. Very good news.

A lower mortality rate is better than a higher mortality rate but the problem with Covid is it’s highly contagious. Because it spreads so easily and makes a significant number of people seriously sick to the point they need hospitalization and intensive care, it still is going to break the healthcare system AND the economy when it spreads out of control.

Also, even with a lower mortality rate - which will go up if the healthcare system is overwhelmed- because of a high rate of spread there will still be high total fatalities.
 
A lower mortality rate is better than a higher mortality rate but the problem with Covid is it’s highly contagious. Because it spreads so easily and makes a significant number of people seriously sick to the point they need hospitalization and intensive care, it still is going to break the healthcare system AND the economy when it spreads out of control.

Also, even with a lower mortality rate - which will go up if the healthcare system is overwhelmed- because of a high rate of spread there will still be high total fatalities.
We have been hearing about the potential overwhelming of the healthcare system for months, actually since the beginning of this. Hasn't happened, not even close. All of that additional capacity that was built went largely unused. We still have that abilty to build extra capacity very quickly if necessary. Bottom line, current rates are being well managed and we can manage more if needed.
 
If the Iranians low-ball the numbers they are working some angle.

Now, if they roll out the high numbers, they are working some angle.

As usual, they have problems on the homefront that they have trouble managing. They like to play the "everything is fine" routine until it doesnt work anymore. Then when things get really bad, they swing all the way over to "it's the sanctions and the pandemic."

Either way, they never go through a period where the regime is responsible for anything.

Maybe it's a good thing, I don't know yet. If they need the pandemic as some face-saving move as an explanation for their other problems and then use that as a reason to dialogue on the sanctions and therefore all the issues that go with it, well then, good. If not, then not.

Unfortunately, all the despots of the world, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, China etc are on the same wavelength as their democrat counterparts in the U.S - they are just hoping for a Biden win so they are in a holding pattern right now. If Biden wins, well then, it's all good for them again.
 
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