http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/19917
The 2007 Recession Has Already Started, Says Roubini
Posted on Nov 6th, 2006
Nouriel RoubiniExcerpt from Prof. Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor:
By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007...
...we are also into an auto sector recession that is getting worse by the month as major auto makers as slashing production in face of sluggish sales and massive excess capacity. But this is not just a auto sector recession. We are also already in a manufacturing recession and non-manufacturing industrial recession too: two months of consecutive fall in industrial production, a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful (just above the 50 recession mark), continued and persistent fall in manufacturing employment (-39K in October alone). Things are getting particularly bad in consumer durables sectors (autos, home appliance, furniture, etc.) as these are closer to housing; but more broadly almost all industrial sectors are contracting...
...We are not yet in a service sector recession but we are getting close to it. Wal-Mart's sales number were not only awful for October; they expect their sales to be flat in November, the worst performance in a decade. The troubles of Wal-Mart - in spite of much lower oil prices - are also the troubles of most other retailers as the figures yesterday for most major retailers' same store sales were mediocre and disappointing...
...note that both employment and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators of the business cycles. So, it is pretty bad if the best we can do is to add 92K jobs even before an economy-wide recession has started.
...Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.
The 2007 Recession Has Already Started, Says Roubini
Posted on Nov 6th, 2006
Nouriel RoubiniExcerpt from Prof. Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor:
By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007...
...we are also into an auto sector recession that is getting worse by the month as major auto makers as slashing production in face of sluggish sales and massive excess capacity. But this is not just a auto sector recession. We are also already in a manufacturing recession and non-manufacturing industrial recession too: two months of consecutive fall in industrial production, a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful (just above the 50 recession mark), continued and persistent fall in manufacturing employment (-39K in October alone). Things are getting particularly bad in consumer durables sectors (autos, home appliance, furniture, etc.) as these are closer to housing; but more broadly almost all industrial sectors are contracting...
...We are not yet in a service sector recession but we are getting close to it. Wal-Mart's sales number were not only awful for October; they expect their sales to be flat in November, the worst performance in a decade. The troubles of Wal-Mart - in spite of much lower oil prices - are also the troubles of most other retailers as the figures yesterday for most major retailers' same store sales were mediocre and disappointing...
...note that both employment and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators of the business cycles. So, it is pretty bad if the best we can do is to add 92K jobs even before an economy-wide recession has started.
...Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.
