Rosebud

nitro said:
I am surprised at oils resiliency here and I would have expected it would be in the mid 43s. True, the dollar is weakening today due to lower bond yields in the US, and lower dollar usually is a tail wind for oil. However, imo the chance of a recession, with a FED that is on a path to normalization, means that the hit that oil "should" take from the lower demand is of greater weight than the hit the dollar is taking. Since the US is becoming less reliant on importing oil, consumption is stronger than interest rates. At least in theory since 2+2 does not equal 4 in markets.

So holding tight. Target on oil by the model is changing, but a 43.20 ish is close to exit. By the theory above, USDCAD seems to be mispriced, as well USDNOK. They are playing the interest rate side instead of the demand side, which imo is wrong. So USD will probably gain against both "soon".
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Strictly going by the charts, CL is on the verge of turning the corner. Initially, there will be a retrace back down to as low as 44.50. That's a good thing and it ain't a selloff as you might think. Once that happens, place a buy stop order just above today's high at 46.80. Price target should be around 49.50-ish.

You can buy me a beer when we get there. ;)
 
schizo said:
Strictly going by the charts, CL is on the verge of turning the corner. Initially, there will be a retrace back down to as low as 44.50. That's a good thing and it ain't a selloff as you might think. Once that happens, place a buy stop order just above today's high at 46.80. Price target should be around 49.50-ish.

You can buy me a beer when we get there. ;)
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Thanks, but I don't trade. My models do. Even if GOD came down and told me where oil was going, it would do me no good unless I could code the movement causation logic.

The oil model is somewhat disappointing me. It was magic for a long time, and now it is almost good enough - instead of leading where oil would go, it now follows oil. The precision is uncanny, but lag is useless. I am in the process of investigating where my system is going wrong. The resolution of these things almost always educate me immensely.
 
nitro said:
Out one unit OVX 40.25, -3.76.

Holding one short from 41.69.
Still long CL from 47.375
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nitro, i trade (actual)vol futures but as flies ..but because u are posting vol trades it gets my interest.

please tell me your synthetic OVX short from 41.69 was covered or somehow offset seeing that the OVX is today trading @ 66.14 ??
 
sellindexvol66 said:
nitro, i trade (actual)vol futures but as flies ..but because u are posting vol trades it gets my interest.

please tell me your synthetic OVX short from 41.69 was covered or somehow offset seeing that the OVX is today trading @ 66.14 ??
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nitro ,

i'm curious also seeing vol is my trade also...you ignoring his posts seems to me like you are just here to talk.

did you ever take any trades at all?

having reread i see u posted long ovx, short ovx then when he question u that ovx does not even trade u switched the trade to a synthetic equiv but still quote as if u are trading ovx. there is no syn equiv btw that matches ovx 1:1

whats worse is the paper trade is still short from 41.69!!!

i fail to see why so many posters lie, what is there to gain? even more amazing is that so few see the absurdness of the posts..oh wait i can answer that!!

they do not trade enough to know what fos u are. i should have known when another thread u were short ES from what 1100 posting nuke bomb pics (those especially hurt me for personal reasons) was moved to chit chat!

again, i ask; why make stuff up? having people follow you and talk is the goal?
 
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