rookie looking for help

Quote from risktaker:

You're not taking into account that stocks trend higher over 5-10-20 years. Also, a lot of sales are done buy insiders and others granted options at very low cost. Those people normally sell at a substantial profit.
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*Sigh* ok I'll explain it to you again. Over the years more and more people put their money into the stock market...for retirement/investing/whatever...more money in the market makes the market go up. Money being pulled out makes the market go down. The insiders with their options make the stock go down when they cash them out. The insiders may make substantial profit...but that doesnt mean that the millions of other traders/investors that were long when the insiders sold, didnt lose 50 cents or so that day.

The stock market does not "invent" money....it has to come from somewhere. I dont know why this is a hard concept for alot of traders to grasp. Maybe you all dont like believing that you are taking money from the account of a little old lady.

The stock market is the biggest ponzi scheme every created
 
Look, on a daytrading basis, where you pit 1 trader against another, yes it's "negative-sum" game. But in the long run, unless the market goes down for say, 20 years, or stays flat for that long, IF it continues on a modest uptrend, then it is a *positive* sum game when calculating the net sums involved. But this has no bearing for individual traders or 1 day or even 1 year in particular. We're talking LONG term!

Look at it this way...XXXX company does an IPO and raises $1 bil and the founders cash out all their stock at $20
Six months later the stock is $40
Then it drops to $30
whoever bought at $40 now has a loss
Those who bought at $20 on IPO day still have a gain
Not taking all the commissions involved, as long as the stock remains above $20, it's a "positive-sum" game.
And even though, many IPO's fail, many will go on to several multiples of their original IPO price over a period of 10-20 years.

Quote from peilthetraveler:

*Sigh* ok I'll explain it to you again. Over the years more and more people put their money into the stock market...for retirement/investing/whatever...more money in the market makes the market go up. Money being pulled out makes the market go down. The insiders with their options make the stock go down when they cash them out. The insiders may make substantial profit...but that doesnt mean that the millions of other traders/investors that were long when the insiders sold, didnt lose 50 cents or so that day.

The stock market does not "invent" money....it has to come from somewhere. I dont know why this is a hard concept for alot of traders to grasp. Maybe you all dont like believing that you are taking money from the account of a little old lady.

The stock market is the biggest ponzi scheme every created
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Quote from dvda420:

How is looking to make a reasonable daily return on a leveraged $5,000 a dream? I do have a *real* job but this job relies heavily on the real estate market and will likely see a serious downturn when the DC area market takes a hard hit some time in the next 6-12 months. I am looking for another opportunity to make decent money which rewards me for my hard work.
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Your reply should help you learn about trading....don't listen to the negative wise ass replies you received here...people calling you an idiot and telling you that you will be a failure....there are very few successful traders here and tons of wannabe traders and con artist... True successful traders would never reply to you the way some of these fools have by calling you names and being so negative...successful traders will give you suggestions and without charging you for it!!!

Now, back to what I said that your very own reply should help you learn trading..you said that your day job relies heavily on the real estate market and will likely see a serious downturn when the DC area market takes a hard hit some time in the next 6-12 months.....BINGO...then study the real estate stocks and the builders and use your experience in real estate to make a list of ones that would be hurt the most if your prediction comes true and then either use some of your limited capital or paper trade shorting them or buying puts on them when you see your prediction developing...

By making a list of real estate related stocks now and watching them with what you feel the industry will be doing in 6-12 months out, you will see by tracking them first hand how stocks move up and down and sideways and how you can recognize opportunity in trading them...

Good Luck...
 
Quote from risktaker:

Look, on a daytrading basis, where you pit 1 trader against another, yes it's "negative-sum" game. But in the long run, unless the market goes down for say, 20 years, or stays flat for that long, IF it continues on a modest uptrend, then it is a *positive* sum game when calculating the net sums involved. But this has no bearing for individual traders or 1 day or even 1 year in particular. We're talking LONG term!

Look at it this way...XXXX company does an IPO and raises $1 bil and the founders cash out all their stock at $20
Six months later the stock is $40
Then it drops to $30
whoever bought at $40 now has a loss
Those who bought at $20 on IPO day still have a gain
Not taking all the commissions involved, as long as the stock remains above $20, it's a "positive-sum" game.
And even though, many IPO's fail, many will go on to several multiples of their original IPO price over a period of 10-20 years.
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That is because more and more people keep buying. Maybe if you cant get the zero sum concept you should go to the community college and take an accounting class...there is a little concept called "Assets=liabilities + owners equity". Maybe that will give you an idea of how things always balance. Anyways im done talking about this...respond if you want, i'll read it tommorrow.
 
While at times it can be a zero sum game, it can also be a positive sum game as well as a negative sum game. Just think about it a little longer....

to the OP...go try and trade and get ripped. It's the only way u will learn. Make sure u can afford to lose the money...because u will. But the most important thing is to never give up. If u see urself giving up....then its best u shudnt even start....
 
Quote from dvda420:

I am interested in becoming a trader. currently I am tied to the DC area geographically. I have about 5k I can put into a retail or prop account but am really interested in mentoring and training. Can anyone help me by suggesting some offices in the DC or Baltimore metro area who would be interested in talking to me?
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You can trade here:http://www.collective2.com and make money if you can pick the right trading system. Take a week to look them over and read the posts before you dive in.
 
Another site similar to collective2.com is www.traderscue.com. This is a brand new site, so it doesn't have as many good systems yet. My two systems are the two best performing systems so far - BTS Value Trend and BTS Bottle Rockets. BTS Value Trend is up about 30% in the past month. Its historical performance - since 3/31/01 - is 203% annually.
 
Quote from BTStrader:

Another site similar to collective2.com is www.traderscue.com. This is a brand new site, so it doesn't have as many good systems yet. My two systems are the two best performing systems so far - BTS Value Trend and BTS Bottle Rockets. BTS Value Trend is up about 30% in the past month. Its historical performance - since 3/31/01 - is 203% annually.
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take your advertising elsewhere
 
sounds like people need this zero-sum thing cleared up.

In THEORY, the market is a zero sum game. Because all theories have an actual begining and ending. So when the stock market began, and people began placing their money in the stock market (the begining), they are in fact entering a zero sum game in theory. HOWEVER, the end of such game is a long time off...when the stock market finally dwindles and becomes non-existant. As of then, everyone will have taken their money out of the market. And from that picture...begining until the end....the sum of everyone who ever put money into the market and everyone who ever took money each is...zero. (of course no one wants to think of the markets ending, but like everything on this planet..there is a begining and an end.)

Now, in PRACTICE, the market has shown us a Positive Sum game. Since we only make up a small fraction of the market's existance...and it happens that this existance is a time frame which more money is entering the market (as a whole) then the amount leaving.


Simple. Done.




RT
 
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