ron baron says equities are in "less than the 1st inning NO outs!!!!

[S2007S]

Quote from bhardy307:

Yes, but Japan had a more significant issue with deflation at that time. Very soon, you will see greatly increased inflation in the US as confidence increases and all of that cash sitting around starts to get moving again.

Enough with the cash on the sidelines, I have talked about this before, its a myth.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from S2007S:

Enough with the cash on the sidelines, I have talked about this before, its a myth.

Oh no its not! Lots and lots of people have pulled their money out of the market and its sitting there in cash.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from denner:

I'm in agreement. The Bernank won't raise rates significantly. Perhaps a token rate hike, some jawboning by other members of the board...a bit of a hawkish tone, but no chance they raise rates anywhere near where they were in 2007.

2007 fed fund rates wont be seen for years, if BUBBLE ben bernanke is too afraid to move now he wont be moving them any where near that level for at least another decade or so.

I guess unemployment numbers are going to dictate where the fed fund rate moves, maybe he will raise the rates .25 for every full percentage point unemployment drops, so

7% = .50%
6% = .75%
5% = 1%
4% = 1.25%

Thats about right, anything higher would just slow down any economic recovery moving forward haha.

Im thinking by then though BUBBLE ben bernanke would have already started at least 2-3 major asset bubbles.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from bhardy307:

Oh no its not! Lots and lots of people have pulled their money out of the market and its sitting there in cash.

Funny, so as people pulled their money out of the market it has actually gone up, so what makes you think all this money flowing back in is going to keep the markets on a continued run like this?

I have seen this so many times before, I have actually been caught up in it, I have bought at market tops or around market tops and have seen markets completely fall apart, this time its not different, the market may rise to 13,500 or 17,000 but I can tell you that you will be able to buy the dow under 10,000 again, there is always a buying opportunity, look at the Nikkei above 35,000 back 20 years ago, its fallen ever since and has never come back to that original high...money on the sidelines does mean the market is going to be bought every time it dips .92%.

 

[denner]

Quote from bhardy307:

Oh no its not! Lots and lots of people have pulled their money out of the market and its sitting there in cash.

What you are missing is that MANY people have pulled their money out of the market to pay for their living expenses for several reasons:

1. ZIRP. They cannot generate enough interest income to live off of and have to liquidate the principal.

2. Chronic unemployment. Enough said.

3. No home equity cash to borrow against.

4. Exorbitant college tuition costs that precipitate the need to liquidate funds as well.

Considering the fact that many of these baby boomer parents are the ones who were the main beneficiaries of the equity bubble for the past twenty years AND they are the ones with college age children, are nearing retirement or are currently retired, I believe this is a generational shift towards less "cash on the sidelines".

 

[denner]

Quote from S2007S:

2007 fed fund rates wont be seen for years, if BUBBLE ben bernanke is too afraid to move now he wont be moving them any where near that level for at least another decade or so.

I guess unemployment numbers are going to dictate where the fed fund rate moves, maybe he will raise the rates .25 for every full percentage point unemployment drops, so

7% = .50%
6% = .75%
5% = 1%
4% = 1.25%

Thats about right, anything higher would just slow down any economic recovery moving forward haha.

Im thinking by then though BUBBLE ben bernanke would have already started at least 2-3 major asset bubbles.

Actually, the stats will be doctored as needed. If unemployment drops significantly for a few months and puts pressure on the Bernank to raise rates, some other set of economic indicators will be doctored to provide cover to keep rates at zero and justify perpetual ZIRP.

 

[denner]

Quote from bhardy307:

Oh no its not! Lots and lots of people have pulled their money out of the market and its sitting there in cash.

You're a broker aren't you?

I know all the sales pitches backwards and forwards.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from S2007S:

2014 to raise rates??? Its funny if you go back just 2 or 3 years ago they were suggesting raising rates in 2011, 2011 came and they pushed it off to 2012, 2012 came and now they are pushing it off until 2014, Im sure when 2014 comes he will push any rate hikes forward into 2016, and if he does raise them in 2014 it will be only a .25 or .50 hike

I don't dispute this and if this becomes true, there are a lot of options selling strats out there that will make you rich. What we are portraying here is a sideways market for interest rates....for a long period of time.
Only fly in the ointment is a big European recession which will affect US commerce and then cause rates to decline even more. But I see very little upside for rates right now.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from denner:

You're a broker aren't you?

I know all the sales pitches backwards and forwards.

Yes, you obviously know them so well that you intentionally pass negative judgement against others.

You're a perma-bear, aren't you!?

 

[denner]

Quote from bhardy307:

Yes, you obviously know them so well that you intentionally pass negative judgement against others.

You're a perma-bear, aren't you!?

Well, you use alot of the cliche's of a broker.

Not a perma-bear, per se, but when I'm bullish I opt for commodities or metals as opposed to f'ing around with some rigged stock indicies.

You from Iowa?