Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[atticus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

One thing is for sure, you guys are definitely providing some good posts to regurgitate if Obama does not carry the victory you're all certain of.

My motivation is $-based. I have ~$10k riding on a win at even money. This is after laying off the majority of the risk when Rom was in the high 20s. Money that was to be spent on a JL Audio subwoofer. So the lack of bass in my household will be Romney's fault.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from atticus:

My motivation is $-based. I have ~$10k riding on a win at even money. This is after laying off the majority of the risk when Rom was in the high 20s. Money that was to be spent on a JL Audio subwoofer.

I asked this earlier, but you never answered. Are you still as confident on that bet as you were a week or so ago?

 

[atticus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

I'm 6'5" and 245, but I'd be willing to wager you're in a bit better shape than I am. I know you work out all the time. I take 4 martial arts classes a week, but unfortunately, I like to eat and that nullifies a lot of my work, sadly.

Most intimidation results from a thick neck and a buzz-cut.

 

[Ricter]

No one here has more riding on the outcome than jem. AK is copying from various sources, but jem is his own source, the "jem algo".

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from atticus:

Most intimidation results from a thick neck and a buzz-cut.

Well, that I have! Goatee helps too...

 

[atticus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

I asked this earlier, but you never answered. Are you still as confident on that bet as you were a week or so ago?

I missed it.

I am not. How can I be with the digital going from 23 (pre-debate) to 37? Unfortunately for both of us the election hinges on Ohio and not turnout. I would run nothing but pro collective bargaining and auto-bailout ads if I were an Obama CA, but they haven't called for advice.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Ricter:

No one here has more riding on the outcome than jem. AK is copying from various sources, but jem is his own source, the "jem algo".

I think $10,000 qualifies as "more than the jem algo".

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from atticus:

I missed it.

I am not. How can I be with the digital going from 23 (pre-debate) to 37? Unfortunately for both of us the election hinges on Ohio and not turnout. I would run nothing but auto-bailout ads if I were an Obama CA, but they haven't called for advice.

You answered my next question - you're putting more faith in the digital than the polls, then.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Since we are in the last week... I want to prepare our post mortem of this thread which we will do next week.

This thread turned into a thread about the polls... mostly.

This is my view of issues to review next week, I welcome yours. This is obviously a bit biased to my view of things.

Some of the issues we pointed out about polls..

a. the polls were slanted using 7 to 20 points skews to the Ds.
-anything larger than the 2008 template was criminal.
- we argued 2008 template would never happen
- we thought a pollster was responsible if he or she was D plus 3 or 4 or less
- we suggested 2010 was a good template... as well.
- we held and still hold suspicions more Rs than D will turnout
- we predicted that most pollsters would change their ratios to more responsible ones by election day.

b. we also suggest that Nate Silver is a bit of a clown... we suggest to model polls correctly you should adjust the polls to a reasonable election turnout template and then make forecasts.

modeling slanted polls is a fools task. its like doing technical analysis on poorly constructed sentiment readings in the market.
you could get lucky because the results are binary, but a good result is not proof of skill.

c. finally we have been saying that with Romney earns 10 to 20 points more independents on election day... he will certainly win.

---

If Romney loses you were wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong ...I told you you were wrong the last 6 months and the first page of this thread .I told you Rasmussen was garbage and they will lose all of their credibility in 7 days


You're still a cool cat though Jem

 

[atticus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

You answered my next question - you're putting more faith in the digital than the polls, then.

I put no real faith in the National digital, beyond my ability to hedge. I can layoff all my risk and lock a $12k return (beyond counterparty risk), so you can infer the unhedged notional risk. I am looking state by state and in reality it's all Ohio now. Ohio is everything. NV is not in play, nor is PA nor FL.

I am only looking at Silver's blog and the payout on the OH digital. I do believe that Soros has been inactive in this election's digital, but no way to know.

A loss will deplete my (hidden from wife) Wells Fargo slush/hooer/toy fund.