Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Excuse me for going to Belize. What is that some obama loving class envy b.s. Why did you even bring that up?
Finally, that was an analogy to how I analysed that race.
I was not a fundamentals investor. I traded off daily for context and one and 5 minute charts when I made my living trading.
Don't you remember when Obama said, 'you can't just go to Las Vegas?' Then everyone at the GSA took a lavish vacation to Las Vegas on the taxpayer dime.
Liberals don't want anyone to enjoy life with their own money either. That money could be tax revenue to redistribute to some poor pregnant black woman with 6 kids and no husband. How dare you spend your money to go to Belize, jem.
Ohio...
Rasmuessen has Romney up 2 today.
And Rasumessen has Romney with in EC win if the vote were today.
We will see where the polls stand after the weekend.
We will also do a post morten...
and determine if the polls adjusted their ratios from the crazy plus 7 to 20s of a few months ago which AK was arguing was correct and nate silver was modeling to a closer to balanced ratio.
then we will see how what the ratio of voters turn out to be.
Rasmuessen has Romney up 2 today.
And Rasumessen has Romney with in EC win if the vote were today.
We will see where the polls stand after the weekend.
We will also do a post morten...
and determine if the polls adjusted their ratios from the crazy plus 7 to 20s of a few months ago which AK was arguing was correct and nate silver was modeling to a closer to balanced ratio.
then we will see how what the ratio of voters turn out to be.
Since we are in the last week... I want to prepare our post mortem of this thread which we will do next week.
This thread turned into a thread about the polls... mostly.
This is my view of issues to review next week, I welcome yours. This is obviously a bit biased to my view of things.
Some of the issues we pointed out about polls..
a. the polls were slanted using 7 to 20 points skews to the Ds.
-anything larger than the 2008 template was criminal.
- we argued 2008 template would never happen
- we thought a pollster was responsible if he or she was D plus 3 or 4 or less
- we suggested 2010 was a good template... as well.
- we held and still hold suspicions more Rs than D will turnout
- we predicted that most pollsters would change their ratios to more responsible ones by election day.
b. we also suggest that Nate Silver is a bit of a clown... we suggest to model polls correctly you should adjust the polls to a reasonable election turnout template and then make forecasts.
modeling slanted polls is a fools task. its like doing technical analysis on poorly constructed sentiment readings in the market.
you could get lucky because the results are binary, but a good result is not proof of skill.
c. finally we have been saying that with Romney earns 10 to 20 points more independents on election day... he will certainly win.
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This thread turned into a thread about the polls... mostly.
This is my view of issues to review next week, I welcome yours. This is obviously a bit biased to my view of things.
Some of the issues we pointed out about polls..
a. the polls were slanted using 7 to 20 points skews to the Ds.
-anything larger than the 2008 template was criminal.
- we argued 2008 template would never happen
- we thought a pollster was responsible if he or she was D plus 3 or 4 or less
- we suggested 2010 was a good template... as well.
- we held and still hold suspicions more Rs than D will turnout
- we predicted that most pollsters would change their ratios to more responsible ones by election day.
b. we also suggest that Nate Silver is a bit of a clown... we suggest to model polls correctly you should adjust the polls to a reasonable election turnout template and then make forecasts.
modeling slanted polls is a fools task. its like doing technical analysis on poorly constructed sentiment readings in the market.
you could get lucky because the results are binary, but a good result is not proof of skill.
c. finally we have been saying that with Romney earns 10 to 20 points more independents on election day... he will certainly win.
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Quote from atticus:
Where do I send the care package when your corp destroyer loses? Hurry up, Amazon says I have only 5 days before I lose out on free shipping.
One thing is for sure, you guys are definitely providing some good posts to regurgitate if Obama does not carry the victory you're all certain of.