Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
what an ignorant putz
Huge blow for you, Phoenix.
.The Trend Is Your Friend!Quote from gtor514:
There's nobody who wants obama defeated more than me but I have prepared myself to the idea that no matter how big Romney's surge has been in the last 2-3 weeks it may not be big enough to take Ohio, which is where the election will be decided.
Even if Romney takes Iowa and NH he still can't win without Ohio unless he takes Wisconsin which is unlikely. The problem I see is that he all but gave up on Ohio up until after the first debate and his ground game was severely handicapped by that. The Obama camp played it correctly and have been fighting in Ohio for the last year. That's why the early voting is in Obama's favor. Unless the polls are grossly off in Ohio it's to close to get excited for a Romney win.
There's also the possibility that Romney peaked to early.
Oct. 24: In Polls, Romneyâs Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
Take Wednesdayâs national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
Barack Obama
290.8
+3.6 since Oct. 17
Electoral
Mitt Romney
247.2
-3.6 since Oct. 17
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/#more-36636
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
Take Wednesdayâs national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
Barack Obama
290.8
+3.6 since Oct. 17
Electoral
Mitt Romney
247.2
-3.6 since Oct. 17
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped/#more-36636
wow... no wonder he likes to model slanted polls.
he thinks in can draw conclusions for one days noise?
within the last few days Romney moved from about even on Rasmuessen to up 4. While giving back a little on Gallup.
The other polls seemed to go from up big after the first debate to giving back about half the move to moving back towards Romney a little.
Now in one day the times polling savant want to declare an end to momentum?
Most responsible poll watchers would realize we may be seeing a bit of a post debate tiny bounce for Obama... and be interested in seeing if it holds. It is hard to make sense of small moves inside the moe of these polls. It is probably just the back and forth noise we see in all these polls.
he thinks in can draw conclusions for one days noise?
within the last few days Romney moved from about even on Rasmuessen to up 4. While giving back a little on Gallup.
The other polls seemed to go from up big after the first debate to giving back about half the move to moving back towards Romney a little.
Now in one day the times polling savant want to declare an end to momentum?
Most responsible poll watchers would realize we may be seeing a bit of a post debate tiny bounce for Obama... and be interested in seeing if it holds. It is hard to make sense of small moves inside the moe of these polls. It is probably just the back and forth noise we see in all these polls.
Now, come on Jem. Your guy's polls bad and partisan, my guy's polls are unskewed and perfect. Me good, you bad.
You're a smart guy, a driven guy, we may not agree on which side of the road to drive on, but I respect you. The constant claim of slanted polls does seem below you. When and if they turn your way, then all of a sudden they're good? A fine line to walk, just keep your strong will and support for your guy.