Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[shopster]

the echo chamber.




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[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Romney takes lead in RCP Electoral College Map.

Romney now has 206. Obama 201.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

this is the real map... not the joke no toss up one.

The map you posted is the joke,they aren't even following their own rules.A state is supposed to lean to a candidate when its +5 yet they have PA as toss up

Another state they have as toss up .Romney isnt winning 1 poll but its listed as toss up

 

[mrbill]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

The map you posted is the joke,they aren't even following their own rules.A state is supposed to lean to a candidate when its +5 yet they have PA as toss up

Another state they have as toss up .Romney isnt winning 1 poll but its listed as toss up

Where you been AK? I am in need of back up. Thanks.

 

[mrbill]

Quote from jem:

No I do not see your point.
We have to work off a template to put any poll in context.
What do you project the turnout D vs R to be.
I am using 2010 as my template.

But I just explained that even if you use the 2008 template... which was a highwater mark for Dems... now that Obama is down 5 to 18 points with independents... accurate polls must show Romney in the lead.

And it is very wrong to have swing state polls d plus 7 when recent elections have virtually even turnouts in many of the swing states... that is why they swing.

So where am I being biased. Yes I want Romney to win.

But I could make the case these polls should actually be R plus 3 to 5. And that it would not be baised til it got to r plus 10.

I am not even going there...

I am going with the 2010 balance as the template.

Was 2010 a Presidential Race? I think apples and oranges, but if it works for you, no problem.

 

[jem]

ak by a slight augmentation to your concepts...
move florida in Romneys column because he leads in 6 or 7 polls and obama only has one super slanted poll and it only got him to plus 1.

or if you wish to play games....

gallup plus 7...
and crushing with independents.

put the whole country in Romneys column except for CA and NY.

 

[Yannis]

Love Those Libs!

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[Yannis]

Quote from jem:

...put the whole country in Romneys column except for CA and NY.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but NJ is in Obama's camp also, too many folks around here love the nanny state...

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:


move florida in Romneys column because he leads in 6 or 7 polls and obama only has one super slanted poll and it only got him to plus 1.

I agree,FL should be in Romneys column,thats why I use the no toss up map

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from mrbill:

Was 2010 a Presidential Race? I think apples and oranges, but if it works for you, no problem.

I've tried explaining to jem how silly it is to use mid term turn out as a template for a presidential election turn out prediction but he just doesn't get it.

 

[Arnie]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I've tried explaining to jem how silly it is to use mid term turn out as a template for a presidential election turn out prediction but he just doesn't get it.

You're right. Looks like 2004 might be a better template.


With Mitt Romney running ahead of Obama nationally, 2004 is shaping up to be a much more instructive baseline for the upcoming elections than Obama’s historic win in 2008. Indeed, only eight House Republicans hold districts that John Kerry won in 2004. That, more than anything, explains how the Democratic expectation of being within striking distance of the majority is falling far short of reality. Call it the 2008 illusion.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/colu...for-democrats-it-s-not-2008-any-more-20121018