Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

I did not run the unskew algo today... as it looks the same but that Romney gained a point on Rasmuessen.

Rasmuessen Romney plus 2 Unskewed?
Gallup Poll Romney Plus 6. unskewed ?
ABC News Unskewed Romney Plus 6
IBD Unskewed Romney Plus 5
Politico Unskewed ?
Monmouth Unskewed Romney plus 4
Fox Romney Plus 1 Unskewed?
 
but we have an insight in Rasmuessen template.
consistent with other polls they find Romney is up by 9 with independents.

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"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

Obama is getting 85% of the vote from Democrats, while Romney is supported by 87% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the GOP challenger has a nine-point advantage."

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If you do the math... and figure that dems and Repubs virtually cancel themselves out.

Rasmuessen is probably using something close to the 2008 election as a template.

His sample is probably close to D plus 7. and he must sample only about 20 percent Is.

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So if we unskew Rasmuessen to the 2010 template
We have Romney plus 10.

Which is where JEM anlytics has the national race.
 
Jem, do you think Romney will take Ohio?

I understand and appreciate your total support for your candidate, but I still don't see anyone clearly ahead. I will admit that it's getting closer than I anticipated, but nowhere near a 10 point lead by Romney.
 
Quote from mrbill:

Jem, do you think Romney will take Ohio?


I understand and appreciate your total support for your candidate, but I still don't see anyone clearly ahead. I will admit that it's getting closer than I anticipated, but nowhere near a 10 point lead by Romney.
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The difference between JEM analytics and typical left wing observers is that we dig deeper into the polls. We do a dynamic analysis of what what the numbers are telling us.

For instance (we have other trends which put Romney far into the lead as well)

1. Romney now has 5 to 10 point lead or more with independents in many polls.

a. therefore... to just breakeven Obama needs to have a low independent turnout and D plus 7 or D plus 8 turnout like 2008.

c. That is very unlikely given voter enthusiasm for the Ds is relatively low and Republicans are very likely to turnout in far greater numbers than 2008.

d. Dems have also lost millions of their voters to Independents over last 4 years.

If Romneys lead with Independents remains 5 points or better. Obama has less than 10% chance of a win.

the above was the national analysis.

The ohio analysis is similar but the his lead with independents has not been sampled often enough. We have some polls which say the lead is slim an others which show it to be large.

And the balance between Rs and Ds in the past has been closer.
 
Quote from jem:

Romney takes lead in RCP Electoral College Map.

Romney now has 206. Obama 201.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

this is the real map... not the joke no toss up one.
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Do you seriously not see that you are saying and doing the exact same thing you supposedly oppose? Being biased, which is fine, and altering everything, skews, margin of error, to fit your hoped outcome? Hell, I can admit that I am biased, why can't you?

And this is totally wrong because you don't like the source?

of course you don't, it's Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
 
Quote from mrbill:

Do you seriously not see that you are saying and doing the exact same thing you supposedly oppose? Being biased, which is fine, and altering everything, skews, margin of error, to fit your hoped outcome? Hell, I can admit that I am biased, why can't you?

And this is totally wrong because you don't like the source?

of course you don't, it's Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
More...


No I do not see your point.
We have to work off a template to put any poll in context.
What do you project the turnout D vs R to be.
I am using 2010 as my template.

But I just explained that even if you use the 2008 template... which was a highwater mark for Dems... now that Obama is down 5 to 18 points with independents... accurate polls must show Romney in the lead.

And it is very wrong to have swing state polls d plus 7 when recent elections have virtually even turnouts in many of the swing states... that is why they swing.

So where am I being biased. Yes I want Romney to win.

But I could make the case these polls should actually be R plus 3 to 5. And that it would not be baised til it got to r plus 10.

I am not even going there...

I am going with the 2010 balance as the template.
 
Quote from jem:



But I could make the case these polls should actually be R plus 3 to 5. And that it would not be baised til it got to r plus 10.
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What swing states has voter registration R + 3 to 5 ?
 
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