Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:

I see Fox news talks about over sampling Dems and now... we are starting to see people using the equivalent of the the jem balance algo.


http://generation45.net/2012/09/13/why-the-polls-are-all-wrong-and-romney-is-really-winning/

It’s easy to look at the RealClear Politics polling averages and be discouraged. It looks bad for Mitt Romney.

But the key word here is “looks.”

What you’re not seeing is something industry experts call “crosstabs”—the methodology by which the poll was conducted and how the numbers correlate with each other.

For example, did you know that, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Romney closed the gender and favorability gaps?

No?

That’s probably because the mainstream media neglected to tell you about it. It didn’t fit into their narrative.

But there’s more. You know how the electorate breaks down for the voting population: roughly 33% each of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.

Let’s play it safe and assume that Romney and Barack Obama each get 95% of their respective parties’ vote. That’s an automatic estimated 31.5% of the vote for each candidate. Let’s show what that looks like:





Okay, so far, so good. Now, we return to that same Washington Post/ABC News poll we cited earlier and discover that Mitt Romney has a commanding 11% lead with independents. A CNN poll had Romney up by 14% among independents.

I know what you’re thinking. “Wait. I thought Obama won that poll 49%-48%. How can Romney have such a massive lead with independents if Obama still winds up winning?”

You’re right. Let’s assume that the Washington Post/ABC News poll was correct and Romney has an 11-point lead with independents.

Here’s what the new chart with the independent breakdown looks like:



Romney gains 17.82% of the vote and Obama gets 14.19% (Romney beats Obama 54-43 among independents, according to the poll).

Put plainly, even if Barack Obama gets 80% of those “unknown” voters, he would still lose to Mitt Romney 50.32%-49.68%. And those unknowns are more likely to break in half than do an 80-20 split.

Alright, that’s a lot of numbers. Here’s what it means:

The polls are wrong. Plain and simple.

The reason is that they are ALL oversampling Democrats and assuming record-high Democrat turnout and record-low Republican turnout.

That Washington Post/ABC News poll? 33% of respondents were Democrats. 36% were independents. Only 27% of respondents were Republicans.

Sadly, this is how nearly every major polling agency has been conducting themselves throughout this general election. That’s why it appears, at first glance, that Romney is losing.

The problem is that the actual voter turnout levels have never been anywhere near the numbers that the media is using. For example, turnout during the 2010 midterms was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% independent. In 2008—a record year for Democrats—turnout was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% independent.

Here’s the bottom line: Barack Obama is headed for a popular vote thumping, and the media has decided to try to make the race look like a sure win for the president.

Fortunately for America, the media narrative is 100% fallacy.
More...

The polls are using the same methodology that they used in the past .Republicans need something to give them hope the next 2 months
 
Quote from jem:

I see Fox news talks about over sampling Dems and now... we are starting to see people using the equivalent of the the jem balance algo.


http://generation45.net/2012/09/13/why-the-polls-are-all-wrong-and-romney-is-really-winning/

It’s easy to look at the RealClear Politics polling averages and be discouraged. It looks bad for Mitt Romney.

But the key word here is “looks.”

What you’re not seeing is something industry experts call “crosstabs”—the methodology by which the poll was conducted and how the numbers correlate with each other.

For example, did you know that, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Romney closed the gender and favorability gaps?

No?

That’s probably because the mainstream media neglected to tell you about it. It didn’t fit into their narrative.

But there’s more. You know how the electorate breaks down for the voting population: roughly 33% each of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.

Let’s play it safe and assume that Romney and Barack Obama each get 95% of their respective parties’ vote. That’s an automatic estimated 31.5% of the vote for each candidate. Let’s show what that looks like:





Okay, so far, so good. Now, we return to that same Washington Post/ABC News poll we cited earlier and discover that Mitt Romney has a commanding 11% lead with independents. A CNN poll had Romney up by 14% among independents.

I know what you’re thinking. “Wait. I thought Obama won that poll 49%-48%. How can Romney have such a massive lead with independents if Obama still winds up winning?”

You’re right. Let’s assume that the Washington Post/ABC News poll was correct and Romney has an 11-point lead with independents.

Here’s what the new chart with the independent breakdown looks like:



Romney gains 17.82% of the vote and Obama gets 14.19% (Romney beats Obama 54-43 among independents, according to the poll).

Put plainly, even if Barack Obama gets 80% of those “unknown” voters, he would still lose to Mitt Romney 50.32%-49.68%. And those unknowns are more likely to break in half than do an 80-20 split.

Alright, that’s a lot of numbers. Here’s what it means:

The polls are wrong. Plain and simple.

The reason is that they are ALL oversampling Democrats and assuming record-high Democrat turnout and record-low Republican turnout.

That Washington Post/ABC News poll? 33% of respondents were Democrats. 36% were independents. Only 27% of respondents were Republicans.

Sadly, this is how nearly every major polling agency has been conducting themselves throughout this general election. That’s why it appears, at first glance, that Romney is losing.

The problem is that the actual voter turnout levels have never been anywhere near the numbers that the media is using. For example, turnout during the 2010 midterms was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% independent. In 2008—a record year for Democrats—turnout was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% independent.

Here’s the bottom line: Barack Obama is headed for a popular vote thumping, and the media has decided to try to make the race look like a sure win for the president.

Fortunately for America, the media narrative is 100% fallacy.
More...

no wonder you failed at trading. it is common practice that after someone buys a hot stock and it starts going down they will look for anything to keep them from accepting the fact that they were wrong.
they will look for every analyst that has a buy rating and look for every article profiling their falling stock as the future of technology.
this type of rookie thinking will cause them to hold onto a losing stock until they lose 50-60% of their investment.
 
Are any of my ET brethren licensed for counseling?
If so, I would ask that you open a new thread on November 7-2012 to assist those who will be in need.
We have members from either side (you know who you are) who could use your help.
I won't need any help myself, as my candidate, Ron Paul, has already been eliminated and I'm over it.
Thanks to any ET brethren for your considerations for the new thread.
I don't want to see anyone break down over something as stupid as Obama vs Romney.
 
Quote from Free Thinker:

no wonder you failed at trading. it is common practice that after someone buys a hot stock and it starts going down they will look for anything to keep them from accepting the fact that they were wrong.
they will look for every analyst that has a buy rating and look for every article profiling their falling stock as the future of technology.
this type of rookie thinking will cause them to hold onto a losing stock until they lose 50-60% of their investment.
More...

failed at trading...

I kicked ass and made a lot of money for someone who started with a small account. I had five over 100 percent years in a row.

Then when the nyse changed the rules and vol died... I was unwilling to risk the money I had to try and continue to make 100 percent returns.

20 percent returns were not enough for me to live on..
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:

The polls are using the same methodology that they used in the past .Republicans need something to give them hope the next 2 months
More...

and if so that methodology did not work in 2010.

what happens is that the polls start playing straight in the last few days before the election, call it a momentum swing based on money.
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:

LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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lol yes, the digital on Romney to win dropped 2 overnight.

166zlt2.png
 
what we know...

in most polls Independents lean to Romney.

therefore... you have to ask are we expecting Ds to turnout like the did in 2008, or lower like they did 2010 or even lower.

We know Rs are motivated to turnout at least at 2010 levels.

---

everything I just said is undeniable...

conclusion.. I will leave that for you.
 
Quote from jem:

and if so that methodology did not work in 2010.

what happens is that the polls start playing straight in the last few days before the election, call it a momentum swing based on money.
More...

The worst poll in 2010 was Rasmussen





http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate




Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
 
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