Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[jem]

I just looked at the recent cbs nyt poll.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/poll-obama-holds-narrow-edge-over-romney/


it has obama up 3 but

it breaks down like this.

repubs - 7 for Obama 90 for Romney
independents 44 for Obama 50 Romney
dems - 93 for Obama 5 for Romney


so... if the Rs and Ds.. turnout out in the same numbers... the Is will make Romney the winner.


so what I said before I left still holds....
for Obama to win the democrats have to turnout like they did in 2008.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from mrbill:

Yeah, I don't think the Intrade numbers are even close. Nice to see maybe, but a bit skewed.

While republicans think the middle east situation will help Romney history says it will help the incumbent,I think thats the cause of the spike.I think Romney will pull within 15 again when the middle east situation calms down

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

I just looked at the recent cbs nyt poll.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/poll-obama-holds-narrow-edge-over-romney/


it has obama up 3 but

it breaks down like this.

repubs - 7 for Obama 90 for Romney
independents 44 for Obama 50 Romney
dems - 93 for Obama 5 for Romney


so... if the Rs and Ds.. turnout out in the same numbers... the Is will make Romney the winner.


so what I said before I left still holds....
for Obama to win the democrats have to turnout like they did in 2008.

Obama won by more then 10 million votes last time,thats more then republicans beat democrats by in 2010.Obama does not need 2008 turn out numbers


The national polls really mean nothing,Obama has so many ways to win on the electoral map and has consistently lead on all electoral maps the entire year.PA is almost solidly blue and VA and NC turning toss up from formerly being reliably red has made it much harder for republicans to win the White House from now on.It would take a miracle for Romney to win imo

 

[mrbill]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Obama won by more then 10 million votes last time,thats more then republicans beat democrats by in 2010.Obama does not need 2008 turn out numbers


The national polls really mean nothing,Obama has so many ways to win on the electoral map and has consistently lead on all electoral maps the entire year.PA is almost solidly blue and VA and NC turning toss up from formerly being reliably red has made it much harder for republicans to win the White House from now on.It would take a miracle for Romney to win imo

Still not too cocky, but I do think that Jem's analysis, although possibly mathematically valid, does seem like quite a stretch. I don't think there are enough independent's to make a difference. I may be wrong.

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Obama won by more then 10 million votes last time,thats more then republicans beat democrats by in 2010.Obama does not need 2008 turn out numbers


The national polls really mean nothing,Obama has so many ways to win on the electoral map and has consistently lead on all electoral maps the entire year.PA is almost solidly blue and VA and NC turning toss up from formerly being reliably red has made it much harder for republicans to win the White House from now on.It would take a miracle for Romney to win imo

your electoral map comment is reasonable but you are missing one very important factor. This is a new electorate...

that Romney is up by 6 with Independents means... that almost all polling models are mis weighted... both on the state and national level.

If Rs and Ds are close in each state... then the Is will swing even some dems states to Romney...

 

[Brass]

Quote from jem:

...I was scuba diving and locating places for clients to protect assets in case the democrats remain in power. There are a lot of people making similar preparations.

So you're going to place your clients underwater?

 

[jem]

Quote from Brass:

So you're going to place your clients underwater?

no, but many of my clients are still underwater thanks in part to the Fed and obamanomics.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from jem:

no, but many of my clients are still underwater thanks in part to the Fed and obamanomics.

touche

jem 1

brASS 0

 

[Brass]

Quote from jem:

no, but many of my clients are still underwater thanks in part to the Fed and obamanomics.

Yeah, couldn't possibly have anything to do with you, eh? Always the victim.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Brass:

So you're going to place your clients underwater?

lol wtf.

Jem,

Smooth segue from water sports to asset protection. Or did you intend to put the money back into the shipwrecks?