Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[Free Thinker]

WASHINGTON -- With the first of the nominating conventions less than a week away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll adds more evidence that the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate has not been a "game changer" in the 2012 race for the White House.

The latest poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, surveyed from Aug. 16 to 20, found President Barack Obama with a narrow 4 percentage point lead (48 to 44 percent) over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. That's slightly narrower than the previous NBC/WSJ poll in July, which showed Obama leading by 6 points (49 to 43 percent). Support for each candidate in the newest survey fell within the margin of sampling error.

That new result squares with the HuffPost Pollster chart, based on all available public polls, which shows no significant change in the Obama-Romney race since the spring.

 

[jem]

Quote from Free Thinker:

WASHINGTON -- With the first of the nominating conventions less than a week away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll adds more evidence that the choice of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate has not been a "game changer" in the 2012 race for the White House.

The latest poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, surveyed from Aug. 16 to 20, found President Barack Obama with a narrow 4 percentage point lead (48 to 44 percent) over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. That's slightly narrower than the previous NBC/WSJ poll in July, which showed Obama leading by 6 points (49 to 43 percent). Support for each candidate in the newest survey fell within the margin of sampling error.

That new result squares with the HuffPost Pollster chart, based on all available public polls, which shows no significant change in the Obama-Romney race since the spring.

Note..
The JEM balance algo converts that poll to Romney plus 3.

I believe that poll was 45D / 39 R. the algo upconverts it to a balanced election and likely voters.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from jem:

Note..
The JEM balance algo converts that poll to Romney plus 3.

I believe that poll was 45D / 39 R. the algo upconverts it to a balanced election and likely voters.

Maybe there is "Hope" for us yet.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

post ryan...

even the slanted AP has it close now.

Associated Press/GfK Obama +1 (jem algo - tba)
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +4 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
Rasmussen Tracking Romney +2
Gallup Tracking Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA Obama +1 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)


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note the balance algo.. converts improperly weighted polls to likely voters and a balanced turnout using the 2010 election as the template.

Disclaimer... based on voter enthusiasm polls there could be a relatively low Dem turnout, and a high R turnout -- in which case Romney would get about 90 to 95% of that turnout. So the balance algo could be shorting Romney from 2 to 5 points.

"balance algo" and "honest polls" are trademarked by JEM political analytics. copyright 2012.

Looking forward to seeing the jem poll on RCP one day

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Looking forward to seeing the jem poll on RCP one day

Me too, I'm sick of those BS polls.

 

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Looking forward to seeing the jem poll on RCP one day

Perhaps I should start a blog. To get my jem poll more visibility.


I will reserve the first comment for you AK.
Lucrum and you can be a guest commentators as well.

for instance... it should be this good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3t-DuN8t6U

 

[mrbill]

Quote from jem:

Perhaps I should start a blog. To get my jem poll more visibility.


I will reserve the first comment for you AK.
Lucrum and you can be a guest commentators as well.

for instance... it should be this good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3t-DuN8t6U

Great idea, I would read it. I would like to see a before and after type of thing. Show that either you prove your assertions, or maybe the polls are correct and predict the actual outcome. Regardless of our differences, that would be a good blog.

Maybe you and AK can work together on it?

 

[jem]

There may be no need for a blog or the JEM balance algo... Fox news poll just had a massive swing toward Romney and it is still slanted to Obama.



Post Ryan...
the entire shaded area of RCP... smallest Obama lead I recall...

If you use the JEM balance algo... you see Romney is out in front by a good margin

But this is straight from RCP. These the polls they choose
balance algo not appliced.

Fox news poll had massive change.


this fox news poll has just seen a massive switch. Even with 42 D / 38R

FOX News 8/19 - 8/21 Romney +1
Rasmussen Tracking Romney +1
Gallup Tracking Tie
Associated Press/GfK 8/16 - Obama +1
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl44 Obama +4
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun Obama +1
LA Times/USC Obama +2

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Mitts doing great

 

[jem]

as I said RCP and I show the post Ryan polls in the shaded areas.
The polls in the white area are meaningless.

Mitt is doing great. Obama is out of money.


By the end of the convention... there will be 2 issues.

Obama's economic record and agenda, and
Obamacare and its 700 billion dollar theft from Floridians medicare.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Mitts doing great