Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
2010 was a non presidential election.Non presidential elections have lower democratic turnout
Most voter identification polls and actual voter registration show there are more democrats then republicans,that's why polls have more democrats then republicans
Dec 2011 USA today
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1
Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents
http://elkodaily.com/democrats-outp...cle_a53e09de-a78b-11e1-ae8e-001a4bcf887a.html
Democrats outpace GOP in voter registrations
CARSON CITY (AP) â Nevada Democrats outpaced Republicans in new voter registrations leading up to the state primary.
The secretary of state's office Friday reports that from May 1 through May 22 when primary registration closed, Democrats registered 4,322 active voters, compared with 2,254 registered by Republicans. The number of active registered nonpartisans increased by 2,544 during the same time period.
Statewide, Democrats now hold a 38,792 voter advantage over Republicans. But the gap is far less than the 100,000 voter edge Democrats had going into the 2008 general election.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/gop-closes-in-on-democrats-in-florida-voter-2107649.html
Jan. 17, 2012
Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.
http://www.pagop.org/2012/01/as-parties-lose-voters-republicans-chip-away-at-democrats-advantage/
Pennsylvania-January 20th, 2012
In November 2006, Democrats held a roughly 600,000-voter edge with 3.9 million registered voters to the Republicansâ 3.3 million. The number now stands at 4.1 million Democrats to 3 million Republicans.
The 2012 election will come down to turnout, he said. With a margin that still tops 1.1 million, Democrats have a huge advantage if they can motivate those voters to show up at the polls. But by narrowing that advantage, Republicans put more pressure on the turnout effort, he said.
"In 2012, Independents are likely to turn out in their largest numbers in 35 years, and President Obama will need those Independent votes even more than he did in 2008, if he hopes to be re-elected," Third Way analysts Lanae Erickson and Michelle Diggles write in the report.
(RELATED: Obama's Oops: President Confuses Texas and Kansas -- VIDEO)
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1
The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.
In New Hampshire, Democratic registration plummeted a whopping 14.6 percent, with Republican registration declining a similarly significant 13.5 percent.
(RELATED: Poll: Gingrich Riding Tea Party Support in Iowa )
In every one of the eight battleground states, Democrats lost ground to Republicans. (In Colorado, Republicans saw a larger rate of growth in voter registration than Democrats, 1.8 to 0.9 percent.)
The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.
(RELATED: Obama's Oops: President Confuses Texas and Kansas -- VIDEO)
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1
The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.
In New Hampshire, Democratic registration plummeted a whopping 14.6 percent, with Republican registration declining a similarly significant 13.5 percent.
(RELATED: Poll: Gingrich Riding Tea Party Support in Iowa )
In every one of the eight battleground states, Democrats lost ground to Republicans. (In Colorado, Republicans saw a larger rate of growth in voter registration than Democrats, 1.8 to 0.9 percent.)
The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.
post ryan...
even the slanted AP has it close now.
Associated Press/GfK Obama +1 (jem algo - tba)
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +4 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
Rasmussen Tracking Romney +2
Gallup Tracking Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA Obama +1 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
note the balance algo.. converts improperly weighted polls to likely voters and a balanced turnout using the 2010 election as the template.
Disclaimer... based on voter enthusiasm polls there could be a relatively low Dem turnout, and a high R turnout -- in which case Romney would get about 90 to 95% of that turnout. So the balance algo could be shorting Romney from 2 to 5 points.
"balance algo" and "honest polls" are trademarked by JEM political analytics. copyright 2012.
even the slanted AP has it close now.
Associated Press/GfK Obama +1 (jem algo - tba)
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +4 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
Rasmussen Tracking Romney +2
Gallup Tracking Romney +2
Monmouth/SurveyUSA Obama +1 (jem balance algo = Romney plus 3)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
note the balance algo.. converts improperly weighted polls to likely voters and a balanced turnout using the 2010 election as the template.
Disclaimer... based on voter enthusiasm polls there could be a relatively low Dem turnout, and a high R turnout -- in which case Romney would get about 90 to 95% of that turnout. So the balance algo could be shorting Romney from 2 to 5 points.
"balance algo" and "honest polls" are trademarked by JEM political analytics. copyright 2012.