Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[jem]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I have no interest in jems mathematical adjustments to polls from respected pollsters who has a history of accurate polling

in other words you prefer polls which slant to the dems by 15-20 percent more than they should --- or more.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

1. The JEM honest poll model

is a well respected industry leading algo bringing the slanted polls into alignment with the 2010 turnout.

Not when the 2010 elections was not a presidential election and democrats always have lower turnout in non presidential elections

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

in other words you prefer polls which slant to the dems by 15-20 percent more than they should --- or more.

If these are the results, yes




NBC/WSJ 2008 presidential polls

 

[mrbill]

Quote from jem:

in other words you prefer polls which slant to the dems by 15-20 percent more than they should --- or more.

Do you honestly believe that, Jem? Do you really think there is such a conspiracy existing in the U.S. that would allow such a variance to go unchecked? I really can't believe that.

Sure, liberal media, sure, more Dems than Rep's, but to think there is an actual 15-20% liberal slant in all the polls, is just disingenuous. IMO, of course.

 

[jem]

Ok lets tackle this.

On these party ID polls... they tend to use old data and registration data... instead of current polling of properly constructed samples.

For instance lets start with the top of your list.

ARG.


http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/03/disclosing_part_4.html


It is important to note that what ARG does, as explained above, is very different from the way other pollsters ask about party ID. ARG asks about party registration on some states, party identification in others and then combines the two results into a single variable. Whatever the merits of this approach, the will results not be comparable to those of other polling organizations.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification-adults

 

[mrbill]

When they say "adults" - does that mean they are not including 18 year olds? I know the age of majority, but just wondered why the caveat.

AK, have you checked into this information? Your thoughts?

 

[jem]

Quote from mrbill:

Do you honestly believe that, Jem? Do you really think there is such a conspiracy existing in the U.S. that would allow such a variance to go unchecked? I really can't believe that.

Sure, liberal media, sure, more Dems than Rep's, but to think there is an actual 15-20% liberal slant in all the polls, is just disingenuous. IMO, of course.

its not a conspiracy its a fact.

the 2010 election came in with evenly split electorate between Dems and Republicans.

so when a survey comes back slanted to the dem by 7 to 19 points ... my algo adjusts it to a balanced sample.

basic common sense.

 

[jem]

you realize how stupid this is..

you have poll which slanted to Obama ahead of time.

then we have the financial crisis...
McCain sells out his party... along with tons of other Republicans..
so the R voters don't show... result.. slanted poll gets lucky.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

If these are the results, yes




NBC/WSJ 2008 presidential polls

 

[pspr]

Quote from mrbill:

When they say "adults" - does that mean they are not including 18 year olds? I know the age of majority, but just wondered why the caveat.

AK, have you checked into this information? Your thoughts?

What time is it where you are, MrBill. Maybe around 2 A.M. or later?

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from mrbill:

When they say "adults" - does that mean they are not including 18 year olds? I know the age of majority, but just wondered why the caveat.

AK, have you checked into this information? Your thoughts?

LOL !!!