Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Obama winning 20 of the latest polls 24 polls,Romney winning 4



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Intrade Obama + 15






RCP -Obama + 126 electoral votes


 
Quote from mrbill:

Thanks AK! I quoted just to help JEM see the light twice.
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You're welcome Mr Bill.There are usually only 2 -4 of the most recent 25 polls that have Romney winning so its easier for jem to post his polls.There are usually around 20 of the last 25 polls that have Obama winning plus intrade and all electoral maps having Obama winning so it takes me longer :)
 
Quote from jem:



so when put into the JEM honest poll model Romney leads by about 3 or 4. Then when you switch to likely voter.. you get Romney up 6.
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LOL !!!!!!!!!!. Jems math equations to put Romney in the lead
 
1. The JEM honest poll model

is a well respected industry leading algo bringing the slanted polls into alignment with the 2010 turnout.

Our special Offer for ET members...

If you would like to license our software you may speak with our licensing department. Subscribers to our website get special insights into why the slanted polls choose to slant. We make predictions about when they will come into alignment with the fact that current polls show more people identify themselves as Rs than Ds.


also 20 of your 24 polls were done before Ryan was on the ticket.. hence the old slanted polls are totally worthless.

3 Soon to be Released is the JEM anticipatory poll model.
This algo will take all polls and correct for there mis estimation of the 2012 turnout. Our new algo will be designed to show that Rs will outvote Ds by 2 to 5 points.
 
Quote from jem:

jem honest poll model is a well respected industry adjustment bring the slanted polls into alignment with the 2010 turnout.


also 20 of your 24 polls were done before Ryan was on the ticket.

they do not mean anything.
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You're really not counting on Ryan to help, are you? About as much help as Todd Akin, well, that's not fair, but with no bump?

Back to Akin, in case you missed, I would be glad to cut our bet in half if you like, I feel that you got blindsided by Akin. Just let me know. Hand extended to you.
 
Quote from jem:

jem honest poll model is a well respected industry adjustment bring the slanted polls into alignment with the 2010 turnout.


also 20 of your 24 polls were done before Ryan was on the ticket.

they do not mean anything.
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NBC/WSJ includes the Ryan pick.After the ryan pick Obama was winning on Rasmussen 2 or 3 days in a row and it was 1 or 2 points either way on gallup as it always is so the ryan pick has meant nothing
 
ryan has helped the ticket.

look at the NBC poll...

if you adjust it to conform with the 2010 turnout and adjust to likely voters... Romney is up just outside the margin of error.

now if you factor in the fact more people now Identify as R than D... and that Romney leads in Is... Romney is up comfortably.
 
Quote from jem:



if you adjust it to conform with the 2010 turnout and adjust to likely voters... Romney is up just outside the margin of error.

now if you factor in the fact more people now Identify as R than D... and that Romney leads in Is... Romney is up comfortably.
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I have no interest in jems mathematical adjustments to polls from respected pollsters who have a history of accurate polling
 
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