Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[Yannis]

Hey guys, we're still 3 months away, most voters don't really pay a lot of attention before Labor Day, and lots of games are played by the pollsters.

In addition, BO is well known by all voters but Romney is getting known better and better every day (still a long way to go).

Imo, most of this discussion is irrelevant, way too much uncertainty. Campaign mgrs look at polls to finetune their next move and that's about it, the rest will still go up and down significantly... don't waste too much time on it.

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Yannis:

Hey guys, we're still 3 months away, most voters don't really pay a lot of attention before Labor Day, and lots of games are played by the pollsters.

In addition, BO is well known by all voters but Romney is getting known better and better every day (still a long way to go).

Imo, most of this discussion is irrelevant, way too much uncertainty. Campaign mgrs look at polls to finetune their next move and that's about it, the rest will still go up and down significantly... don't waste too much time on it.

I tend to agree. Besides, tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in right-wing super pac money has yet to be spent...

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Yannis:

Hey guys, we're still 3 months away, most voters don't really pay a lot of attention before Labor Day, and lots of games are played by the pollsters.

In addition, BO is well known by all voters but Romney is getting known better and better every day (still a long way to go).

Imo, most of this discussion is irrelevant, way too much uncertainty. Campaign mgrs look at polls to finetune their next move and that's about it, the rest will still go up and down significantly... don't waste too much time on it.

Intrade and some polls(not Rasmussen) have a good record of forecasting the winner long before labor day






In 2008 NBC/WSJ consistently had Obama ahead beginning in March

Intrade had the democratic nomoniee ahead from 2007 to election day all but 3 weeks

 

[AK Forty Seven]

New Pew Research poll

Obama + 10

 

[mrbill]

If you think you still have a decent chance, I'm still here for a bet.

I hate to be obnoxious about all this (go ahead you guys, like Luke, to say "you are" ), but come on, you know Romney is dire straits right now, or is it straights Luke? since you're the resident speller)

Ok, since the title of the thread is, well, wrong, what do you guys have?

Thanks again to AK for all the good, up to date info. Makes my life much easier.

 

[jem]

Nice poll Didn't you just object when the JEM poll had R plus 10.
Pew is plus 11 for Dems.

50% more democrats to get a plus 10.
Its getting insane.

The pew sample --
D 33/ R 22/ I 38

Reminder the 2010 election was
D35 / R 35 / I 30

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

New Pew Research poll

Obama + 10

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Nice poll Didn't you just object when the JEM poll had R plus 10.
Pew is plus D 33 R 22.
50% more democrats to get a plus 10.

Its getting insane...pew sample.

D33/ R22/ I38

Pew vs Rasmussen beginning of Aug 2008

http://www.people-press.org/2008/07/31/inflation-staggers-public-economy-still-seen-as-fixable/




Pew -Obama + 5


Rassmuessen -McCain +1



OBAMA won by + 7

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Nice poll Didn't you just object when the JEM poll had R plus 10.
Pew is plus 11 for Dems.

50% more democrats to get a plus 10.
Its getting insane.

The pew sample --
D 33/ R 22/ I 38

Reminder the 2010 election was
D35 / R 35 / I 30

More 2008 Pew vs Rasmussen polls



Pew -Obama + 6

Rasmussen -McCain +5

Pew -Obama + 6

Rasmussen -Tie

Pew -Obama + 3

Rasmussen -McCain + 1

 

[jem]

Lets examine the fraud behind the July 24 - 30 th CBS / Quinnipiac Poll..
Florida Poll.


Total Voters... 1177
R - 359
D - 373
I - 393
Other - 52

Yet they then decided to weight the poll...
D plus 9

R 27%
D 36%
I 32%

Remember AK in the beginning of this thread... you said we should just accept the answers as they are given. You acted like random calls was all we need. Why are they weighting D plus 9.

Had we got their answers without the weighting... we would have seen a tight race. Which is the truth.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

More 2008 Pew vs Rasmussen polls



Pew -Obama + 6

Rasmussen -McCain +5

Pew -Obama + 6

Rasmussen -Tie

Pew -Obama + 3

Rasmussen -McCain + 1

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Lets examine the fraud behind the July 24 - 30 th CBS / Quinnipiac Poll..

Quinnipiac vs Rasmussen Aug 2008







Quinnipiac -Obama + 5

Rasmussen -McCain + 1



Obama won + 7