Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from jem:



I did not want random results... I want predictions based on the likely turnout.

If Obama is the winner,I want polls to have results like this months before the election


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Once again ET is the thought leader.

It took a few months but now everyone from Rush to Hannity to NBC itself is talking about the skewed samples in these polls.

Thank you to the guys who pointed this out first on this thread.


Quote from AK Forty Seven:

If Obama is the winner,I want polls to have results like this months before the election


47407945.png


92474485.png


40912181.png


91387968.png


45606790.png


89170615.png


34265766.png


78975459.png


24311806.png
 
Quote from jem:

Once again ET is the thought leader.

It took a few months but now everyone from Rush to Hannity to NBC itself is talking about the skewed samples in these polls.

Did they mention that these were the same polls and methods used in the 2008 presidential election and were very accurate in the 2008 presidential election ?

Did they mention that one of these skewed polls (NBC/WSJ)had Obama ahead in every one of their 2008 presidential polls from March 2008 to election day while Rasmussen had often had McCain ahead?
 
If the general population of, say, registered voters has more (or less) dems than republicans, then valid samples of that population should reflect that difference.
 
Quote from Ricter:

If the general population of, say, registered voters has more (or less) dems than republicans, then valid samples of that population should reflect that difference.



The the general population has more registered democrats then republicans and polls consistently reflect that.



Dec 2011 USA today


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1



Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents
 
you have already learned that the polls you are citing will switch to likely voters around the time of the election. You have learned that from Huffington Post.


Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Did they mention that these were the same polls and methods used in the 2008 presidential election and were very accurate in the 2008 presidential election ?

Did they mention that one of these skewed polls (NBC/WSJ)had Obama ahead in every one of their 2008 presidential polls from March 2008 to election day while Rasmussen had often had McCain ahead?
 
likely voters is what they will be using.
also note...

registered voters is inaccurate. you need to look at current party identification if you are going to construct a valid sample.

For instance out of Irish tradition my dad and mom were registered as a democrats for a long time.

I can tell you this during the last 40 years of his life, my dad never voted for a democrat. Same with my mom who is still alive.




Quote from AK Forty Seven:

The the general population has more registered democrats then republicans and polls consistently reflect that.



Dec 2011 USA today


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1



Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents
 
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