New NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl poll,Obama + 6
Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
that nbc poll
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 11
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 16
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 7
Strong Republican ............................................. 16
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 2
Not sure ........................................................... 1
46 Dems - 37 Reps - 16 Ind
Dems plus 9....
that is how skewed a poll has to get to get Obama plus 6.
Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 11
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 16
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 7
Strong Republican ............................................. 16
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 2
Not sure ........................................................... 1
46 Dems - 37 Reps - 16 Ind
Dems plus 9....
that is how skewed a poll has to get to get Obama plus 6.
I agree those are serious issues too. but we have to eliminate the purchase of Congress. As a retired oil exec told me. The problem with Congress is that they are not our crooks anymore. The scary thing is that they are China's and other nations on foreign policy.
And someone elses on defense and wall street's when it comes to glass stegall or too big to fail.
Countrywide's when it came to mortgages.
They are crooks for the wrong people on every issue. They were much better when they were just power hungry.
They hardly ever manage to do the right thing.
They even screwed up Obamacare and single payer.
What the hell are they good for?
Screwing us up.
And someone elses on defense and wall street's when it comes to glass stegall or too big to fail.
Countrywide's when it came to mortgages.
They are crooks for the wrong people on every issue. They were much better when they were just power hungry.
They hardly ever manage to do the right thing.
They even screwed up Obamacare and single payer.
What the hell are they good for?
Screwing us up.
Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008
Republicans more enthusiastic than in 2008
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.
These results are based on a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll. They suggest a shift in Republicans' and Democrats' orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans' motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party's chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.
Gallup has found a relationship between voting enthusiasm and the outcome of midterm congressional elections, with the party that has the advantage generally faring better in the elections. That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election. The 2004 data provided less guidance as to the eventual winner, as the Republicans (68%) and Democrats (67%) had similar scores at the time of the election, which George W. Bush won narrowly.
Voter Enthusiasm Down Among All Americans
Overall, Americans' voting enthusiasm this year has lagged behind what it was in 2004 and 2008. The current level of enthusiasm is down slightly from what it was in the summer of 2008, but that followed a significant drop after the 2008 primaries, from 62% to 48%. Voting enthusiasm began to pick up again in the fall of 2008, and by the time of the 2008 election it was similar to 2004 levels
The decline in voter enthusiasm this year is consistent with Gallup's finding that self-reported likelihood to vote is lower compared with the fall of 2004 and 2008.
Implications
With voter enthusiasm down significantly from 2004 and 2008 levels, it is reasonable to expect that turnout will be lower this presidential election than in the last two elections, both of which had above-average turnout from a historical perspective.
Republicans' greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.
However, Democrats' depressed enthusiasm may be influenced by the comparatively tough re-election battle the president is facing, likely due to the state of the economy and Americans' generally sour mood. So it may be that Democrats will still vote in large numbers but are just not as excited about doing so as they were in the last two elections.
Lower Democratic enthusiasm at this point could also indicate that Democrats have not fully tuned in to the campaign, which is possible, given the lack of a Democratic nomination contest this year as there was on the Republican side. If that indeed is a factor, Democrats' enthusiasm may pick up steam in the fall after the Democratic convention. But if Democrats do not close the enthusiasm gap between now and Election Day, it would put Obama's re-election chances in serious jeopardy.
Republicans more enthusiastic than in 2008
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.
These results are based on a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll. They suggest a shift in Republicans' and Democrats' orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans' motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party's chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.
Gallup has found a relationship between voting enthusiasm and the outcome of midterm congressional elections, with the party that has the advantage generally faring better in the elections. That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election. The 2004 data provided less guidance as to the eventual winner, as the Republicans (68%) and Democrats (67%) had similar scores at the time of the election, which George W. Bush won narrowly.
Voter Enthusiasm Down Among All Americans
Overall, Americans' voting enthusiasm this year has lagged behind what it was in 2004 and 2008. The current level of enthusiasm is down slightly from what it was in the summer of 2008, but that followed a significant drop after the 2008 primaries, from 62% to 48%. Voting enthusiasm began to pick up again in the fall of 2008, and by the time of the 2008 election it was similar to 2004 levels
The decline in voter enthusiasm this year is consistent with Gallup's finding that self-reported likelihood to vote is lower compared with the fall of 2004 and 2008.
Implications
With voter enthusiasm down significantly from 2004 and 2008 levels, it is reasonable to expect that turnout will be lower this presidential election than in the last two elections, both of which had above-average turnout from a historical perspective.
Republicans' greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.
However, Democrats' depressed enthusiasm may be influenced by the comparatively tough re-election battle the president is facing, likely due to the state of the economy and Americans' generally sour mood. So it may be that Democrats will still vote in large numbers but are just not as excited about doing so as they were in the last two elections.
Lower Democratic enthusiasm at this point could also indicate that Democrats have not fully tuned in to the campaign, which is possible, given the lack of a Democratic nomination contest this year as there was on the Republican side. If that indeed is a factor, Democrats' enthusiasm may pick up steam in the fall after the Democratic convention. But if Democrats do not close the enthusiasm gap between now and Election Day, it would put Obama's re-election chances in serious jeopardy.
excellent contribution to this thread.
Quote from Arnie:
Democratic Voting Enthusiasm Down Sharply From 2004, 2008
Republicans more enthusiastic than in 2008
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual" in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.
These results are based on a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll. They suggest a shift in Republicans' and Democrats' orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans' motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party's chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.
Gallup has found a relationship between voting enthusiasm and the outcome of midterm congressional elections, with the party that has the advantage generally faring better in the elections. That pattern also held in the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats reporting greater enthusiasm throughout the year and Barack Obama winning the election. The 2004 data provided less guidance as to the eventual winner, as the Republicans (68%) and Democrats (67%) had similar scores at the time of the election, which George W. Bush won narrowly.
Voter Enthusiasm Down Among All Americans
Overall, Americans' voting enthusiasm this year has lagged behind what it was in 2004 and 2008. The current level of enthusiasm is down slightly from what it was in the summer of 2008, but that followed a significant drop after the 2008 primaries, from 62% to 48%. Voting enthusiasm began to pick up again in the fall of 2008, and by the time of the 2008 election it was similar to 2004 levels
The decline in voter enthusiasm this year is consistent with Gallup's finding that self-reported likelihood to vote is lower compared with the fall of 2004 and 2008.
Implications
With voter enthusiasm down significantly from 2004 and 2008 levels, it is reasonable to expect that turnout will be lower this presidential election than in the last two elections, both of which had above-average turnout from a historical perspective.
Republicans' greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.
However, Democrats' depressed enthusiasm may be influenced by the comparatively tough re-election battle the president is facing, likely due to the state of the economy and Americans' generally sour mood. So it may be that Democrats will still vote in large numbers but are just not as excited about doing so as they were in the last two elections.
Lower Democratic enthusiasm at this point could also indicate that Democrats have not fully tuned in to the campaign, which is possible, given the lack of a Democratic nomination contest this year as there was on the Republican side. If that indeed is a factor, Democrats' enthusiasm may pick up steam in the fall after the Democratic convention. But if Democrats do not close the enthusiasm gap between now and Election Day, it would put Obama's re-election chances in serious jeopardy.
12 + 7 + 16 = 35, not 37 - spread is 11, not 9
So.....
NBC'S CHUCK TODD: OUR POLL WAS SKEWED
Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.
This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)
Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin, hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.
Note to Mr. Todd: A highly partisan skew doesn't just affect the head-to-head match up. It affects pretty much every other finding in the poll. Obama and Romney's likability? Who is better to handle particular issues? Every single "result" will be skewed due to the flawed sample used in the poll. There is simply almost no real information to be accurately "learned" from this poll.
Well, that isn't quite true. We can learn that Obama's campaign is continuing to struggle with voters. Even with an 11-point "thumb on the scale", Obama can't crack 50% and leads Romney by only 6 points. If this poll were weighed within the same time zone as reality, Romney would likely be leading. Worse for Obama, even with the heavy Democrat skew, Romney IS leading Obama on who is better to handle the economy by 7 points, 43% to 36%.
Remember that media polls are often nothing more than propaganda. They are used to reinforce a narrative that the media wishes to advance. If they conform to the media's agenda, they will report them honestly. But, if they go against that narrative, the media will either ignore or, as seems to be the case here, "juice" the numbers to be the preferred result.
In the end, though, the media is just deluding itself. In November, the voters will have the definitive say.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/25/nbcs-chuck-todd-our-poll-was-skewed
Exact same NBC/WSJ poll from July 21 2008 ,Obama +6...Obama won the election by + 7
Rasmuessn poll from 8-1 -2008,Mccain +1...Obama won by + 7
NBC /WSJ = Had the eventual winner ahead within 1 point of election results
Rasmuessen=Had Mccain ahead ,off by 8 points
Rasmuessn poll from 8-1 -2008,Mccain +1...Obama won by + 7
NBC /WSJ = Had the eventual winner ahead within 1 point of election results
Rasmuessen=Had Mccain ahead ,off by 8 points
you know the broken clock in my office was correct a few hours ago... again..
even a really big shit poll gets it right once in a while in a fluid election.
even a really big shit poll gets it right once in a while in a fluid election.
Quote from AK Forty Seven:
Exact same NBC/WSJ poll from July 21 2008 ,Obama +6...Obama won the election by + 7
Rasmuessn poll from 8-1 -2008,Mccain +1...Obama won by + 7
NBC /WSJ = Had the eventual winner ahead within 1 point of election results
Rasmuessen=Had Mccain ahead ,off by 8 points
Wrong.NBC/WSJ had Obama ahead in most of thier 2008 polls months before election day.During this same time period most of Rasmussen polls had McCain ahead
