Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[jem]

jem keeping them honest poll.

Rasmussen Tracking Romney +2
Gallup Tracking Obama +2
McClatchy/Marist Obama +2

The McClatchy Marist poll is a good example of how these polls are being done. I commend McClatchy for putting their sample info up front.


36 % Dems
29% Rep
34% independent

and it comes out plus 2 Obama.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:



The McClatchy Marist poll is a good example of how these polls are being done. I commend McClatchy for putting their sample info up front.


36 % Dems
29% Rep
34% independent

Similar results to most voter identification polls and voter registration



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification-adults

 

[AK Forty Seven]

AK Forty Sevens reality poll


Obama 5

Romney 2

Obama winning 2 polls by +5

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Obama doing 5 points better then the last incumbent this point in time.Being the incumbent adds around 10 points imo(the last time an incumbent loss he was trailing in the polls by around 10)

 

[jem]

From my research...
The lists which have dems leading by 7-10 points are way out of touch.
They are using 2008 presidential voting pool or they are screwing with the list in a different way.

That was the high water mark from dems.

Now... dems and repubs are even or repubs lead by a few.
This depends on where you places the "leans" .

from Rasmuessen.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.7%, Democrats 33.8%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Similar results to most voter identification polls and voter registration



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/party-identification-adults

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:


from Rasmuessen.

Partisan Trends: Republicans 35.7%, Democrats 33.8%, Unaffiliateds 30.5%

From Rasmuessen




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate




Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

or they are screwing with the list in a different way.

13 polls say more democrats then republicans

1 poll (Rasmussen)says more republicans then democrats

Whos more likely to be screwing with their poll results

 

[jem]

I just explained to you what I found.
If you wish for me to take that list seriously... present their sample sizes and methodology.

I clicked on just one...Ipsos
this is what I found with caveats.

a. Caveats... the "random samples" are far from Random.
They can easily be rigged based on time of day calling and cell phone vse land line. along with other tricks...

but...

On the Ipsos list if you click through...
if you select registered voters... the spread is 46 to 42

Next... if you were to choose a pool of likely voters... I am sure you would see a balance because we know from experience dems will not show up in the same numbers.

--

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

13 polls say more democrats then republicans

1 poll (Rasmussen)says more republicans then democrats

Whos more likely to be screwing with their poll results

 

[jem]

you keep presenting this tired list.
Rasmuessen was tied for first most accurate in the last presidential poll.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

From Rasmuessen




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/



Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate




Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

you keep presenting this tired list.
Rasmuessen was tied for first most accurate in the last presidential poll.

You keep presenting this tired line

The poll you mention is from one poll,I repeat 1 poll.The polls in that survey were only off by an average of 1.37 %


The list I presented is from over 100 Rasmussen poll results,not just one