Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

So here's my question. If the news flow tends to favor a particular spectrum politically, wouldn't it follow that the people on the other spectrum become quiet for a while?

Ie, if a lot of negative Obama news comes out, isn't it harder for an Obama supporter to post in defense? They would certainly become less inclined to post.

Absolutely. Pres. Obama is currently on a tight rope. The hard left is pissed, the hard right was born pissed, so now it is all about the middle. What I want to see is which demographic is going to stand and which is going to sit. Obama I think has hitched his wagon to white women, the rest of the coalition is locked up almost by default.

The key, in my mind, is whether or not there are more conservative or liberal white women. And whether that bent will be enuf to counter the white male non-gay vote.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Absolutely. Pres. Obama is currently on a tight rope. The hard left is pissed, the hard right was born pissed, so now it is all about the middle. What I want to see is which demographic is going to stand and which is going to sit. Obama I think has hitched his wagon to white women, the rest of the coalition is locked up almost by default.

The key, in my mind, is whether or not there are more conservative or liberal white women. And whether that bent will be enuf to counter the white male non-gay vote.

So in other words it is logic and reasoning (men) vs emotion (women).

Obama is looking more and more like Carter in 1980. What is keeping the race interesting is that Romney is no Reagan.

 

[jem]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided.

Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Romney now leads Obama for the first time in Wisconsin where the president's support has fallen to its lowest level to date. Former Governor Tommy Thompson remains well ahead of Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.

Romney also leads in North Carolina and Missouri. Obama leads in Pennsylvania. The race is a toss-up in Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado.

Four years ago, after wrapping up the Democratic nomination, Obama led John McCain every single day during the month of June. His average lead was five percentage points. Obama eventually won by seven points. In the first 14 days of June for Election 2012, Romney has held the lead 11 times, the candidates have been tied twice, and Obama has been on top once. See tracking history.

 

[jem]

Rasmussen Tracking 6/11 - 6/13 1500 LV 44 48 Romney +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/7 - 6/11 848 RV 45 44 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking 6/6 - 6/12 3050 RV 46 45 Obama +1
IBD/CSM/TIPP 6/1 - 6/8 841 RV 46 42 Obama +4
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 6/4 - 6/6 1152 LV 47 46 Obama +1
FOX News 6/3 - 6/5 907 RV 43 43 Tie

intrade has obama re elected at 53%.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Obama winning 4 out of 5 most recent RCP polls

Obama +10 on intrade

In comparison to the last incumbent Obama doing much better in the polls and about the same on intrade

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Obama +10 on intrade...

And dropping.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Lucrum:

And dropping.

Not usual compared to the last two elections.It tightens up when both parties have their nominees.Bush had a similar lead of around 10 points over Kerry in June 04

When Romney takes the lead for a month it will mean something

 

[Max E.]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Obama winning 4 out of 5 most recent RCP polls

Obama +10 on intrade

In comparison to the last incumbent Obama doing much better in the polls and about the same on intrade

LOL, it is funny watching you continue to move the goal posts, in order to make it into good news for Obama.

In the last 2 months

Obama's margin has went from this

to this

And you are the only one who refuses to acknowledge it....

 

[jem]

Intrade on Barack Obama....

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012


53.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.30 / share
Today's Change: +$0.01 (+0.2%)
Contract Type: 0-100

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

LOL, it is funny watching you continue to move the goal posts, in order to make it into good news for Obama.

In the last 2 months

Obama's margin has went from this

to this

And you are the only one who refuses to acknowledge it....

The goal post changes when the GOP has their nominee .I didnt expect Obama to have the same lead now as he did during the primaries