You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
1. Many of those polls oversample democrats. Dems do not turn out in those numbers.
2. Here is the working thesis.
Many people are still registered democrat even though they identify as independent or republican when asked.
This is how we can reconcile the disparity between registered voters but self identification of party.
2. Here is the working thesis.
Many people are still registered democrat even though they identify as independent or republican when asked.
This is how we can reconcile the disparity between registered voters but self identification of party.
I think we have it.
2008 was an outlier year for democrat registrations. And the Dems have leaked millions back out of the party.
From Pew Research.
http://www.people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/
As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorateâs partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. In particular, the Democrats hold a much narrower edge than they did in 2008, particularly when the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account.
Notably, the GOP gains have occurred only among white voters; a 2-point Republican edge among whites in 2008 (46% to 44%) has widened to a 13-point lead today (52% to 39%). In sharp contrast, the partisan attachments of black and Hispanic voters have remained consistently Democratic.
While Republican gains in leaned party identification span nearly all subgroups of whites, they are particularly pronounced among the young and poor. A seven-point Democratic advantage among whites under age 30 three years ago has turned into an 11-point GOP advantage today. And a 15-point Democratic advantage among whites earning less than $30,000 annually has swung to a slim four-point Republican edge today.
...
Analysis of the overall balance of partisan identification in all Pew Research Center polling conducted in each year â updated with data from the first six months of 2011 âfinds that as the number of Democrats has fallen from a quarter-century high in 2008, the number of self-proclaimed independents has continued to grow. As a result, there are now as many independent voters as Democrats (34% each) â the first time this has occurred in more than two decades of Pew Research
2008 was an outlier year for democrat registrations. And the Dems have leaked millions back out of the party.
From Pew Research.
http://www.people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/
As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorateâs partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. In particular, the Democrats hold a much narrower edge than they did in 2008, particularly when the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account.
Notably, the GOP gains have occurred only among white voters; a 2-point Republican edge among whites in 2008 (46% to 44%) has widened to a 13-point lead today (52% to 39%). In sharp contrast, the partisan attachments of black and Hispanic voters have remained consistently Democratic.
While Republican gains in leaned party identification span nearly all subgroups of whites, they are particularly pronounced among the young and poor. A seven-point Democratic advantage among whites under age 30 three years ago has turned into an 11-point GOP advantage today. And a 15-point Democratic advantage among whites earning less than $30,000 annually has swung to a slim four-point Republican edge today.
...
Analysis of the overall balance of partisan identification in all Pew Research Center polling conducted in each year â updated with data from the first six months of 2011 âfinds that as the number of Democrats has fallen from a quarter-century high in 2008, the number of self-proclaimed independents has continued to grow. As a result, there are now as many independent voters as Democrats (34% each) â the first time this has occurred in more than two decades of Pew Research
Quote from jem:
1. Many of those polls oversample democrats. Dems do not turn out in those numbers.
2. Here is the working thesis.
Many people are still registered democrat even though they identify as independent or republican when asked.
This is how we can reconcile the disparity between registered voters but self identification of party.
Romney and Obama both have a minimum support of 45%. The battle is for the last 10%, at most.
Quote from jem:
I think we have it.
2008 was an outlier year for democrat registrations. And the Dems have leaked millions back out of the party.
From Pew Research.
http://www.people-press.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/
As the country enters into the 2012 presidential election cycle, the electorateâs partisan affiliations have shifted significantly since Barack Obama won office nearly three years ago. In particular, the Democrats hold a much narrower edge than they did in 2008, particularly when the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account.
Notably, the GOP gains have occurred only among white voters; a 2-point Republican edge among whites in 2008 (46% to 44%) has widened to a 13-point lead today (52% to 39%). In sharp contrast, the partisan attachments of black and Hispanic voters have remained consistently Democratic.
While Republican gains in leaned party identification span nearly all subgroups of whites, they are particularly pronounced among the young and poor. A seven-point Democratic advantage among whites under age 30 three years ago has turned into an 11-point GOP advantage today. And a 15-point Democratic advantage among whites earning less than $30,000 annually has swung to a slim four-point Republican edge today.
...
Analysis of the overall balance of partisan identification in all Pew Research Center polling conducted in each year â updated with data from the first six months of 2011 âfinds that as the number of Democrats has fallen from a quarter-century high in 2008, the number of self-proclaimed independents has continued to grow. As a result, there are now as many independent voters as Democrats (34% each) â the first time this has occurred in more than two decades of Pew Research
Want to bet $1,000 on the outcome? We can use an escrow service. Straight up.
You're strident in your convictions, but my guess is that you'll have some excuse to recuse. You're all BS and bluster.
Quote from atticus:
May 15, 2012
Americans See Obama as Solid Favorite to Win Election
Fifty-six percent think Obama will win; 36% think Romney will
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.
SKEWED! Criminals!
I am waiting to see a link to numbers behind thisl.
This is sort of a predict the academy awards question
don't we really want to ask are you a voter... who will you vote for?
Quote from jem:
I am waiting to see a link to numbers behind thisl.
This is sort of a predict the academy awards question
don't we really want to ask are you a voter... who will you vote for?
Try google. It's a big search engine company. It's a Gallup story. I'll save you the trouble of waiting any further (had you asked previously?).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154670/americans-see-obama-solid-favorite-win-election.aspx
Obviously I will not be casting a vote.
Quote from atticus:
Try google. It's a big search engine company. It's a Gallup story. I'll save you the trouble of waiting any further (had you asked previously?).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154670/americans-see-obama-solid-favorite-win-election.aspx
Obviously I will not be casting a vote.
Here is an interesting quote from the same article.
The results are based on a May 10-13 USA Today/Gallup poll. The poll was conducted at a time when U.S. registered voters are evenly divided in their vote preferences. Gallup's latest Daily tracking update, based on May 8-14 interviewing, shows 46% of voters preferring Obama and 45% Romney.
Quote from atticus:
Want to bet $1,000 on the outcome? We can use an escrow service. Straight up.
You're strident in your convictions, but my guess is that you'll have some excuse to recuse. You're all BS and bluster.
I have concerns about the polls as I suspect Romney has a lead right now. Who wins will depend on events and the economy.
I only trade with edge or when i think I have it. I suspect you do the same. So you are offering a bet you could instantly lay off ( for a profit).
Would you like to beat the odds of intrade?