More odds in The Presidents favor
Incumbent already has the odds in his favor.No US President has loss re election during a time of war.Since TV became the norm for presidential elections the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the more likable candidate.Obama beating Romney 60-31 in likability
http://news.yahoo.com/romney-unlikable-235804293.html
Romney, the Unlikable
Very few votes are going to be cast on the basis of what Mitt Romney did or didnât do to John Lauber in 1965. So that, per se, isnât Romneyâs problem. But this is: The story lands as another brick on pile of evidence amassing that heâs just a disagreeable human being. A few days ago I wrote about Barack Obamaâs biggest problem, which is that despite all the many areas in which Americans rate him higher than Romney, the one on which they give Romney the edge happens to be pretty important: handling the economy. Now we get to Romneyâs biggest problem. The likability factor. He ainât got it. And he ainât got much of a way to get it.
Historical question: When is the last time the clearly less likeable candidate beat the clearly more likeable one for the White House? The answer is, a long time. I put the question to Gallup, which didnât have historical numbers at hand. But doing some noodling around on my own suggests that you have to go back to 1968 to find such a result.
In 2004, George W. Bush generally led the likeable category. Pew emailed me some numbersâthey had Bush leading John Kerry on likeability by 47 to 36 percent in September 2004. Interestingly, Kerry caught up and even went ahead after the first debate. But even so, voters judged both very likeableâ70 percent for Kerry, and 65 percent for Bush. In 2000, Bush usually topped Al Gore, but not by massive margins. An October 2000 poll gave Bush an 11-point margin. Pew had a nine-point margin for Bush around the same time.
Before then, numbers get a little harder to come by. But crusty old Bob Dole was surely not considered more likeable than Bill Clinton in 1996. The 1992 Clinton-George H.W. Bush matchup was probably close. But just think back over the elections. The âwoodenâ Michael Dukakis in 1988 wasnât exactly radiating intense bonhomie. Ronald Reagan was extremely likeable on a personal level to most people. Jimmy Carter had that big smile in 1976. Et cetera. As I say, I would imagine that itâs 1968, when the surly Dick beat the Happy Warrior, although by just a half million votes out of more than 70 million cast. But even Nixon was probably not clearly less likeable than Humphrey. After all, heâd been the vice president, heâd been on the national stage for nearly 20 years; the man definitely had his backers.
Romney, though? This is the biggest washout of modern times, folks. Gallup just this week put the likeability ratings at Obama 60, Romney 31. Itâs not that Obamaâs number is unusually high. Look back at those Kerry-Bush numbers. Americans are an open-hearted lot, at least presumptively, so they want to like the guy whoâs going be the president. But they Do. Not. Like. Mitt. Romney.
