Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Quote from AK Forty Seven:
Gallup now has Obama + 3,a few days ago they had Romney +5
Polls that "weigh" or tamper with the poll results like Gallup and Rasmussen tend to be the most inconsistent
None of the polls mean anything if they do not reveal the size of the samples. We know a few of those which favor Obama have sample sizes skewed 6-11 points in favor of democrats.
And you know I did not trust the Gallup poll because they did not reveal their sample sizes even when Romney was in the lead a few days ago.
Sold!
And I will give you a further choice, since you seem to be somewhat partial to RCG's proposal. Here are the three options I am making available to you, and when you select the one you prefer the most with a response post, we can ask the moderator(s) to enforce the deal as best as they can:
Option 1. The loser leaves ET forever.
Option 2. The loser cannot post in P&R only, for the duration of winner's presidential term. So if Romney wins and he stays in office for two terms, then I cannot post in P&R for 8 years. Note that Obama can only have another 4 years, so, in addition to your earlier "smart money" comment, this bet is all edge for you.
Option 3. Loser must refrain from any posting on ET in its entirety for a period of either 1, 2 or 3 months. Please specify the duration of your choice if you choose this option.
And there you have it, jem. A cornucopia of options, ranging from the extreme to the mild. And you get to decide. So which will it be? Please advise, and then we can ask the moderator(s) to step in and do the necessary when the time comes.
There are more registered democrats then republicans so polls will have more democrats then republicans
No you couldn't.There has been over 500,000 shares traded on the general election.A few thousand might bump Romney up a point temporally but it would be quickly countered by Obama money.There are also other sites that betters look for arb plays with Intrade making manipulation even more difficult
http://electoralmap.net/analysis.php
Did Intrade correctly predict the 2008 Presidential Election?
The answer is - without a doubt. The Intrade prediction market was forecasting a sizeable Obama victory for most of the election season, and correctly predicted the results of nearly every state in the Union.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade
Political contracts
Intrade has offered since 2002 the widest range of markets for political events, such as "George W. Bush to win 2004 US Presidential Election".
In the 2004 presidential election, the market favorite won the electoral vote in every state. This occurred when, even as late as election day, many pollsters and analysts were predicting a John Kerry victory. In Florida, a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call. The betting markets, however, correctly and consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably