Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[377OHMS]

The Biden Problem

I saw this article today (linked to Drudge) showing poll results that suggest that Joe Biden is harming Barrack Obama's reelection chances. Apparently Biden is as unpopular as Dick Cheney which is surprising because Cheney was in office for 8 years and was blamed to a large degree for the wars and the foreign policy implemented post-9/11:

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/05/biden-unfavorable-swing-state-poll/1

"Joe Biden may not be much help to Barack Obama in key swing states this fall.

In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, Americans split on whether they like or dislike the vice president – 42% said they had a favorable opinion, 45% said unfavorable – but the numbers are worse in key swing states.

In the 12 swing states likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election, only 40% of registered voters view Biden favorably, while 54% view him unfavorably. These numbers are worse than President Obama's who is seen favorably by 50% of registered voters in those same states and unfavorably by 49%.

The 12 swing states in the poll are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. These states are all considered too close to call for the November election.

Independents are also down on the VP, with 50% saying they view him unfavorably and 35% holding a favorable view. The survey found the same pattern with voters who are not strongly committed to any candidate, with 52% viewing Biden unfavorably and only 33% holding a favorable view.

The poll of 1,012 adults conducted May 10-13 puts Biden more or less in the middle of recent VP opinion. He's a lot less popular than Al Gore, who stood at 60% favorable -27% unfavorable among registered voters in an August 2004 Gallup Poll, but a lot more popular than Dan Quayle, who was viewed favorably by only 33% and unfavorably by 58% in a July 1992 USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.

Biden is more on par with Dick Cheney, who stood at 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable in a July 2004 USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll."

Looks like old Joe has become a liability for Obama. I wonder if he'll be thrown under the bus. There has been some suggestion in the media that Michelle Obama intensely dislikes Biden due to his inability to control his mouth in his interactions with the media.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from 377OHMS:

Seems like Obama's support of same-sex marriage is backfiring badly. He's given Florida away.

As is his anti capitalism and anti Bain Bull shit.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from 377OHMS:

...There has been some suggestion in the media that Michelle Obama intensely dislikes Biden due to his inability to control his mouth in his interactions with the media.

In Joe's defense he IS drunk most of the time.

 

[pspr]

Quote from 377OHMS:

....Biden is more on par with Dick Cheney, who stood at 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable in a July 2004 USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.....

I know Dick Cheney and Biden is NO Dick Cheney! That's like comparing the brain of a toad to that of Albert Einstein.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

If the SC strikes down Obamacare Obama will promise a bill without the mandate and with a public option,his numbers gos up .Most parts of Obamacare are popular,its the mandate that makes it unpopular


The SC might strike down the mandate and keep the rest of the bill although I doubt he will be that lucky

He'd never get it in before the election. So it's a moot point.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Texas will be going democrat soon

NY and CA polls have Obama up +20 to +30.Texas polls only have Romney up by 6-8


Houston,Dallas,Austin and San Antonio all have democratic mayors,it will be a blue state soon when all the Latino kids start voting.What will the republicans do then :eek:

Texas looks fine to me.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I mentioned you used a strange electoral map despite relying heavily on RCP polls. You didn't answer.

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Romneys good fortune in yesterdays Florida poll is short lived,new NBC poll released today has Obama +4 in Florida,+6 in Ohio,+6 in Virginia

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Obama has been doing better in most polls since supporting gay marriage and The Bain attacks.He has even been ahead in Rasmussen (which is skewed towards republicans) for around a week

 

[jem]

Rove stated the contrary last week on Van Susteren.

The pools in which obama has a lead outside the margin of error over sample democrats between 7-11 points.
Rasmuessen is far more accurate.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I believe most of Karl Roves polls are from polls within the last 30 days and he only uses polls over 30 days if there are no polls in the last 30 days.Most of the swing states have polls within 30 days

You believe incorrectly. I saw him explain this on van susteren last week.

Notice it says 30 day average on the map

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Rove stated the contrary last week on Van Susteren.

The pools in which obama has a lead outside the margin of error over sample democrats between 7-11 points.
Rasmuessen is far more accurate.

1.His maps from his website clearly state 30 day average




2.Polls aren't oversampling democrats,its a fact that there are more democrats then republicans thats why there are more democrats in polls that don't tamper with their results to help republicans

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-12-22/voters-political-parties/52171688/1


Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents






3.Many would disagree Rasmussen is the most accurate




http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/




November 4, 2010, 10:41 pm

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly


Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.

On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.


The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.

Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.

Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.

Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.

Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point, Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied.

Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative — the same direction in which his polls have generally leaned — although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view, that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.