Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Look at the glass half full,Luke might be going to the penalty box for a month :D


I think it will be upheld.If they overturn Obamacares mandate it is going to wreak havoc on The US healthcare system and The Supreme Court for years to come.If Obamacare is overturned the SC will be flooded with challenges to other mandates in the healthcare system such as forcing hospitals to treat ER patients for free and medicare.Medicare forces you to buy health insurance,government health insurance that you use in the future but it is still forcing you to buy health insurance.If they say Obamacares mandate is unconstitutional how can they say medicare is constitutional when it is challenged in a year or 2.Does The Supreme Court really want to deal with all the healthcare cases in the next few years if they overturn Obamacare and throw the US healthcare system into chaos ? I'm don't think they do
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I do hope you are right, but the SCOTUS is usually not concerned with that kind of thing.

It is 4-4 with Kennedy being the tiebreaker. I don't think he will be concerned with throwing our system into chaos as it is already there. Most people in Allied Health could write their own books on this matter.
 
Quote from Max E. Pad:

I honestly think Obama is going to win by a percentage point or 2, but atleast if that happens i will have gotten rid of one of the people who is going to rub salt in all our wounds the day after.....

If Romney wins by more than 5 i might just take a 3 month vacation..... to celebrate..... :D

If Obama wins by more than 5, and i got to listen to the gloating without being able to respond someone should probably put me on suicide watch...... Maybe i can give you my emergency contact number just for safe measure Jem.... :D
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You always were a sly one Maxine, have you ever thought about my feelings and how am i going to live without you for 3 whole months.:mad:.
 
Quote from jem:

That is comedy. a lot of enthusiasm from Romney? That is only beginning.

You know those polls over sample democrats by 7 to 11 points.
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How do we - you - know that?
 
You have to look at the difference in polls between "registered voters" and "likely voters."

Polls of registered voters usually give an advantage to democrats (vs reality) because democrats are statistically more likely to register and then not vote.

I disregard any and all polls of "registered" voters or polls of people who identify themselves as "supporters" of a particular candidate because 30-50% of this group don't show up to vote.

I only look at polls of "likely" voters.

Following is a link to an article from Gallup that explains how polls of registered and likely voters can be quite different.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/registered-voters-vs-likely-voters.aspx

Excerpt from the article:

Here's an example. Gallup's final poll before the 2004 election showed the following:

Registered voters
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 48%

Likely voters
George W. Bush 49%
John Kerry 47%

Kerry was ahead among registered voters by 2 points, while Bush was ahead among likely voters by 2 points.

The final election result? Bush won the popular vote over Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points, almost exactly what our likely voter estimate predicted. Had we reported only registered voters, we would have estimated a Kerry victory. In other words, had all registered voters turned out in 2004, Kerry would have been elected president. But all registered voters didn't turn out. There was a Republican advantage among those who did turn out. And Bush won.
 
Quote from good ole boy:

How do we - you - know that?
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there were links after I posted that which explained that the lefties are increasing the democrat sample size in some of these polls.
 
You know where else Obama got a double-digit lead? In the polling sample. In 2008, when Democrats surged to the polls after eight years of George W. Bush, CNN’s exit polls showed a seven-point advantage for Democrats, 39/32, which mirrored Obama’s seven-point victory in the popular vote. In 2010′s midterms, CNN exit polls showed a 35/35/30 split. By contrast, the previous WaPo/ABC poll in March had a D/R/I of 31/27/36, which undersampled both parties relative to independents but left Democrats with a 4-point advantage — perhaps an arguable model for 2012 turnout. Today’s has a D/R/I of 34/23/34, adding seven points to that Democratic advantage and presenting a completely unrepresentative, absurd model for the 2012 turnout.

What happens when you switch from a D+4 to a D+11 in measuring Obama’s standing? Suddenly, his job approval goes from 46% to 50% — actually, a rather weak gain given the sampling distortion in the poll. Not coincidentally, the last time Obama hit 50% in this poll was in February, which also had a D+11 sample, after January’s D+7. Adding seven points to the Democratic advantage impacted Obama’s performance in all areas, although perhaps not as much as the editors had hoped:



Quote from Trader666:

Here's one example:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/04/10/wapoabc-poll-adds-seven-points-to-dem-advantage-in-sample/
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So now if we look at both ideas..

Dems are being over sampled and
dems are more likely to not show up.

The composite score has Obama down by 6.

Economy sucks
Obama has no plan
Food prices up
Gas prices up
Jobs down
His approval rating is in the basement

election today... obama loses by a wide margin.
 
Quote from jem:

So now if we look at both ideas..

Dems are being over sampled and
dems are more likely to not show up.

The composite score has Obama down by 6.

Economy sucks
Obama has no plan
Food prices up
Gas prices up
Jobs down
His approval rating is in the basement

election today... obama loses by a wide margin.
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Evangelicals will not vote for a Mormon over status quo. as the election draws near, they will get cold feet. Primaries where evangelicals were dominant Mitt got crushed, that is not an accident. It won't matter in a state like Mississippi but it can in a state like Ohio where you every last vote counts.

Mitt has issues with hispanics, evangelicals and even working class whites and women!. He needs to run up the score among whites to even have a chance. The states and people Mitt won during the primaries are the states Mitt will never carry in the general. Mitt will never carry Urban vote ever. Nor will he carry the vote of people with advanced degrees.
 
Quote from IShopAtPublix:

Evangelicals will not vote for a Mormon over status quo.
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They will turn out in droves to vote against Obama, Mormon or not.
 
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