Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
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Quote from AK Forty Seven:
lol. i nominate this for post of the year.
I am going to re-iterate my warning about getting too excited about a Romney surge and win. Romney may very well win and win big. There could very well be a big sure for Romney on election day as independents, dissatified with Obama over the last four years break heavily for Romney. Romney already looks like he will take FL, NC, VA but Ohio is unclear and for Romney to win the election he needs Ohio and it's difficult to say where he stands there.
The polls in Ohio don't matter because they only count likely voters and this election has nothing to do with the likely voters in Ohio. It is all about the unlikely voters, ie college kids, senior citizens, homeless, etc who've never voted before. This is where ground game comes into play. The obama campaign has had an effective infrastructe to get out these unlikely voters from the '08 campaign and it is still working. They are herding college kids on the campuses and taking them to early voting on buses. That's how they will most likely take Ohio. The Romney campaign almost gave up on Ohio and there ground game is weak. This is evident when listening to Rob Portman or Ohio's Republican governor talk about the campaign.
It's still early and anything could happen like a 1000 point drop in the dow which could scare the crap out of the independents to vote Romney, but I'm not hopeful.
The polls in Ohio don't matter because they only count likely voters and this election has nothing to do with the likely voters in Ohio. It is all about the unlikely voters, ie college kids, senior citizens, homeless, etc who've never voted before. This is where ground game comes into play. The obama campaign has had an effective infrastructe to get out these unlikely voters from the '08 campaign and it is still working. They are herding college kids on the campuses and taking them to early voting on buses. That's how they will most likely take Ohio. The Romney campaign almost gave up on Ohio and there ground game is weak. This is evident when listening to Rob Portman or Ohio's Republican governor talk about the campaign.
It's still early and anything could happen like a 1000 point drop in the dow which could scare the crap out of the independents to vote Romney, but I'm not hopeful.
Are you kidding me ?
I thought that went straight over the head of 90% of obama voters.
http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/swingometer-gallup-party-id-figures-predict-solid-romney-win/
Now Gallup is in the game, and the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, weâre in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.
That Gallup is giving us a range is not new. They did the same in 2010, when the late Generic Ballot polls offered two different voter models. First there was the high turnout model, one that proved too pessimistic for Republicans, and the low turnout model that was too optimistic. The truth was, as they surely intended, somewhere in the middle.
...
click above... to look at the maps that this blogger projects the gallup party id onto the maps.
Now Gallup is in the game, and the numbers are brutal. In 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, weâre in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.
That Gallup is giving us a range is not new. They did the same in 2010, when the late Generic Ballot polls offered two different voter models. First there was the high turnout model, one that proved too pessimistic for Republicans, and the low turnout model that was too optimistic. The truth was, as they surely intended, somewhere in the middle.
...
click above... to look at the maps that this blogger projects the gallup party id onto the maps.
NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Surged Back To 74%
Obama's odds of winning re-election have risen substantially this week according to all three sources we're monitoring: Polling guru Nate Silver and betting markets Intrade and Betfair.
This despite the continued release of some national polls that have looked great for Romney.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 74% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 63% from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago.
And, on Betfair, Obama's odds have climbed back to nearly 70% from a low of nearly 60% a few days ago.
In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead in the race for 270 electoral votes. And he has been extending it this week
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-election-odds-2012-10
Obama's odds of winning re-election have risen substantially this week according to all three sources we're monitoring: Polling guru Nate Silver and betting markets Intrade and Betfair.
This despite the continued release of some national polls that have looked great for Romney.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 74% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's climbing back toward the 80% peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 63% from a startlingly low 54% a few days ago.
And, on Betfair, Obama's odds have climbed back to nearly 70% from a low of nearly 60% a few days ago.
In short, in everything but some of the national polls (namely, Gallup), Obama has a solid lead in the race for 270 electoral votes. And he has been extending it this week
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-election-odds-2012-10
instead of going inside the polls and looking at numbers... nate new your times silver is averaging slanted polls and running a stats package on them.
somebody should ask what the odds of Obama winning Ohio is if Romney leads independents by 20 points.
Nate is really showing himself to be a joke.
somebody should ask what the odds of Obama winning Ohio is if Romney leads independents by 20 points.
Nate is really showing himself to be a joke.