Romney Looks Like the Next Pres
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
You can't take what S.A. says seriously or interpret his posts literally Jem.
He has a huge beef with his adopted country and that combined with his need for attention compels him to incite and troll rather than engage meaningfully. I don't know what happened to him to induce such hatred towards the USA but it must have been pretty awful.
September 25, 2012
SouthAmerica: Jem, I hate to rain on your parade, but...Obama's victory is a done deal.
Financial Times (UK) â September 24, 2012
âRomney's gaffe highlights difficulty of avoiding cliffâ
By John Authers
Mitt Romneyâs excoriation of the â47 per centâ of the US population who pay no federal income tax is alarming. It is a symptom of perhaps the greatest risk now facing the world economy.
US politics always have a profound impact on business throughout the world. This year, however, the effects are not quite as might be expected. Even if, individually, many powerful investors loathe President Barack Obama, the collective result of their investment decisions suggests that his policies have not troubled them. Neither does the prospect of his re-election.
The US stock market has doubled since it hit bottom only weeks into the Obama presidency. That rally has proceeded this year â even as the odds on an Obama victory have risen, recently topping 70 per cent, according to prediction markets.
Looking at the most politically sensitive stocks, the bet has been on for a while that the president will get another term. According to S&P 500 sub-indices, healthcare facilities (a sector with much to gain from an Obama victory) has beaten coal and consumable resources (a prime beneficiary of his defeat) by 136 per cent since December last year.
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Thats more shocking then Obama winning by 40 on Intrade :eek:
http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/#more-9789
1. paragraph 1... restates my argument about the 2008 electorate being the wrong template for the polls...
2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.
But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply â and unanimously â for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just wonât focus on the race until later in the game.
So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, heâs really probably losing by 52-48!
Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll â one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.
1. paragraph 1... restates my argument about the 2008 electorate being the wrong template for the polls...
2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.
But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply â and unanimously â for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just wonât focus on the race until later in the game.
So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, heâs really probably losing by 52-48!
Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll â one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.
dick morris? you and him have a lot in common. both wrong about just about everything:
Is Dick Morris the world's worst political pundit?
On this evidence, the answer is a clear and unambiguous yes!
We all make silly statements. We all make poor predictions. Indeed most Washington pundits are right as often as they are wrong. One Washington prognosticator, however, stands above the rest.
Step up, Dick Morris.
Morris was at one time a top political operative. From his guiding of now Congressman Jerry Nadler's student government campaign to his work for Bill Clinton, Morris was a winner. He was running another Bill Clinton campaign, in 1996, when he found himself embroiled in a sex scandal.
That imbroglio marked a turning point. Morris was no longer to work for Clinton. Instead, he reinvented himself as a writer and television pundit. It is this work that we celebrate here today.
Morris' ability to make statements and predictions that are often so, so wrong is exceptional. He has been called the "worst pundit in America". The more cynical among us might argue that the word "America" should be replaced with "world". Indeed, to recall all of Morris's spectacular failures would require more space than Santa is allotted for his Christmas list.
Instead, I bring you ten fun and exciting Dick Morris audios, images, videos (in chronological order). Most of these are forecasts, hilarious for just how wrong they were. I cannot guarantee them as the top ten of all time: there are just too many Dick Morris moments from which to choose, so please feel free to note any choices that I've omitted in the discussion thread.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/08/is-dick-morris-worlds-worst-political-pundit