Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Romney is now pulling ahead in the electoral college in Honest polls.

Todays polls on the RCP site have

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

General Election Romney up in both polls...

States...

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Romney +2
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Romney +1
Colorado: Obama +3
Virginia: Romney +3

I call your attention to what looks like some interesting swing state polling... although I do not see a dem vs r breakdown. ..

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_Aug15_Final.pdf

Romney is pretty close to an electoral college win, if you put Ohio Florida and VA in his corner.

Reality check

 

[AK Forty Seven]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

 

[jem]

I could care less about intrade.... it was smoked by the sup ct decision.
If bettors knew what he were doing we would not have Las Vegas or race tracks.

I am going with the polls.

If you adjust the poll sample sizes to match the 2010 election Romney is winning just about every national poll. The polls which put Obama in the lead oversample Dems by 20 to 50 percent.

And just today... if you click my link Romney is ahead in some of the critical toss up states.

Quote from mrbill:

Again, Jem, I respect you but why do you totally discount Intrade and the actual polls? I see dozens of your posts with lots of hints of hope and prayer, but the facts have not changed with Ryan.

 

[jem]

Here click the link and look at todays polls.

its virtually all Romney.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:


Romney is pretty close to an electoral college win, if you put Ohio Florida and VA in his corner.

LOL !!!

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

I could care less about intrade.... it was smoked by the sup ct decision.

SC was a non political election

This is a sample of intrade in political elections




Bush /Kerry

Obama /McCain





2008 House





2008 Senate






2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50)




Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Here click the link and look at todays polls.

its virtually all Romney.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

Click here(then click the state) to see ALL the recent polls in a state,not just the ones jem wants to show


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

[jem]

Look most of us trade here. Intrade just like Cramer gets it right sometimes and gets in wrong too.

The great Carnac could have picked the house and some of those other markets big deal.

Here is what matters ----

today's polls... not the old polls... not the shit polls with oversampled Dems

but every poll out today on Aks... Real Clear Politics...


General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 45, Romney 47 Romney +2

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 43, Romney 47 Romney +4

Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 44, Romney 46 Romney +2

Florida: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1

Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3

Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Purple Strategies Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3
-----------------
You add those 3 states to Romneys column and he only needs to win another state or so for the electoral college victory..

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from jem:

Look most of us trade here. Cramer gets them right sometimes too.

In political elections intrade gets it right more then sometimes,it gets it right most times

ALL recent polls,not just the ones you want to selectively show

 

[AK Forty Seven]