Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Jesus...... What I said earlier on this thread, when you were adamantly denying that it was incredibly easy to manipulate the intrade market, is that 1 person could be holding OBAMA at 61, very easily, especially if they want to place a large bet. Just like how right now 1 person could be holding Obama at 55%

What I said in the previous post on this thread, was merely an example of how easy it would be to move it either way.....

A person wouldnt even have to be intentionally trying to move the market, If someone wanted to get some size off at this point on Intrade they would have to hold a line 2-4% above or below market, just to build a position.
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In the previous 2 elections intrade had the winners ahead 5 of the 6 months prior to election day so the manipulation stuff is irrelevant imo
 
Take a look at the intrade market right now, It has Obama 55 by Romney 40.

If Intrade was really sophisticated enough that casinos were making the the market this far out the casinos could simply buy both Obama and Romney for a free 5%, the market would be locked on both sides.....

This is the most liquid contract intrade has, and a 5% ARB opportunity exists, If an ARB opportunity that is that simple exists, and no one is taking advantage of that do you really think that there is HUGE money making markets on the Intrade quotes?



Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I previously stated I knew it could be manipulated up to the point it that could be arb'ed with other markets for free money



http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=240772&perpage=6&pagenumber=131
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The bottom line is that if Rasmuessen polling is correct and there are now more republicans than dems... does Obama have much of a chance?
 
Quote from Max E. Pad:



If Intrade was really sophisticated enough that casinos were making the the market this far out the casinos could simply buy both Obama and Romney for a free 5%, the market would be locked on both sides.....
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No one is taking advantage now because the number of shares available to close the spread would bring too small a return on investment for tieing up the money until election day
 
Which is EXACTLY the reason I gave you for why the market was easily manipulated......

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

No one is taking advantage now because the number of shares available to close the spread would bring a small return on investment for tieing up the money until election day
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Quote from Max E. Pad:

Which is EXACTLY the reason I gave you for why the market was easily manipulated......
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Apples and Oranges Max.You can close the spread for a guaranteed small profit now .Manipulating the price to artificially low levels presents different opportunities
 
Quote from AK Forty Seven:

This is the most replied to thread in P&R history,congrats on your thread jem :)
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Are you sure, AK? I thought there was one with Zzzzzzz which went over 3k...
 
Quote from Ricter:

Are you sure, AK? I thought there was one with Zzzzzzz which went over 3k...
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I think so,I hit the replies button and this one was at the top of the list. I may be wrong though
 
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