Romney Looks Like the Next Pres

jem · May 30, 2012

If Romney picks Rubio and they win - which I think would be a good bet because they would carry FL, the dems will bring Natural Born Citizen suits.

If the U.S. Supreme court were to rule that you need two American born parents to be President, Al Haig could run up and say he is president again.

The court really needs to decide this issue.

jem · May 30, 2012

From Rasmussen today....

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting 45% of the vote.

pspr · May 30, 2012

Quote from jem:

From Rasmussen today....

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting 45% of the vote.

One thing to keep in mind while watching the poles shift is that the undecideds will mostly go to the challenger. That fact gives Romney a built in advantage since Obama is struggling to get over 45%.

jem · May 30, 2012

Quote from pspr:

One thing to keep in mind while watching the poles shift is that the undecideds will mostly go to the challenger. That fact gives Romney a built in advantage since Obama is struggling to get over 45%.

When you couple that idea with the fact that republicans now actually out number dems but these polls are over sampling dems by 7-11 points...

we are actually looking like a Romney blowout.
Which you would expect with 18 percent unemployment.

Lucrum · May 30, 2012

Quote from jem:

...we are actually looking like a Romney blowout....

A friend of mine mentioned a pundit he follows predicting that very thing recently.

AK Forty Seven · May 30, 2012

Quote from pspr:

One thing to keep in mind while watching the poles shift is that the undecideds will mostly go to the challenger. That fact gives Romney a built in advantage since Obama is struggling to get over 45%.

Once again making up history as you go,undecideds usually go to the incumbent

jem · May 30, 2012

And before ak starts with the idea that is is fair to oversample dems...

lets really look at what is fair.

Create a random sample of people.
find out if they are likely voters...
ask who they will vote for.

There is no reason to over sample democrats by 7-11 points.
We are seeing polls stating republicans now outnumber dems.

AK Forty Seven · May 30, 2012

jem · May 30, 2012

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...rtisan_trends_republicans_36_4_democrats_33_4

During March, 36.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans while 33.4% were Democrats. For the GOP, thatâs a gain of 0.4% from a month ago. Democrats gained a full percentage point from February.

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

and most of those polls over sample democrats by 7-11 points.

So that puts Romney out in front by a large margin with the real electorate.

AK Forty Seven · May 30, 2012

Quote from jem:

And before ak starts with the idea that is is fair to oversample dems...

lets really look at what is fair.

Create a random sample of people.
find out if they are likely voters...
ask who they will vote for.

There is no reason to over sample democrats by 7-11 points.
We are seeing polls stating republicans now outnumber dems.

if you call 100 registered voters at random and 40 dems answer the phone,30 repubs and 30 independents answer the phone that poll is not skewed in anyway