Rocket coming next week

[M.W.]

Complete nonsense. While most recent numbers have dropped somewhat from the highest levels in past decades they stay stubbornly high. Nothing whatsoever hints at inflation abating significantly.

By the way, there is a tradeoff between annual rates of change and monthly changes. Monthly rates of change are heavily impacted by short term fluctuations and seasonality effects. You fully take into account the most recent monthly changes when you observe multiple annual changes of rate but the advantage is that you removed seasonality effects. Both approaches fully reflect the most recent changes, but one is cleaner than the other and less volatile because a lot of noise was removed.

To your other argument, everyone knows that monetary policy has a lagging effect on the entire economy. However policy makers have by now made it blatantly clear that they rather over than undershoot. We need to see a complete equity crash 2023 to witness any of the benchmark rates lower by end of 2023 than today.

You still don't get it do you. As I posted many months ago, Inflation is a lagging indicator and it takes a long time for rate hikes to filter through to the numbers. As I expected, when the shift occurred most of the bears on here would be oblivious to it. Some would say Central Bankers are oblivious to it as well but they are changing their tune now. When you have a lagging indictor, you need to look at the rate of change not the annual number. Recent months have been significantly lower then expected. To claim otherwise suggests you just have no ability to read such news and data through an objective lens.

 

[M.W.]

Everyone can just search your past posts. And you have been labeled a permabull by many other members here. Not sure whether you are currently on medication that blurs your own memory and state of conscience. The below is just from searching past posts of yours with the keywords "equities up". You posted many dozens other posts all year long where you denied the bull market from being over and claimed that diversified long portfolios benefit even in this year's environment. You mocked everyone all year who positioned for softer markets. Search my past posts on markets this year in contrast. From January I have been long the US dollar and short equities and I held the position all year long and reiterated my stance multiple times.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/looking-bad-real-bad.365219/page-2#post-5550957

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-9-inflation-rate.366241/page-11#post-5576462

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/how-was-this-crash-obvious.366593/page-4#post-5583758

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/tomorrow-will-be-a-very-good-day.370469/page-8#post-5700996

You're just posting absolute fiction that has no point to it. There is something seriously wrong with you.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Everyone can just search your past posts. And you have been labeled a permabull by many other members here. Not sure whether you are currently on medication that blurs your own memory and state of conscience.

Getting labelled a "permabull" on here says more about the posters saying it then how I address markets. Perhaps you lack the ability to understand the nuance of being bullish a sector ( Cdn energy ) and broader markets. I could list every reference I made about IT since Jan 1, 2021 on here it's not bullish at all. In reality you just want to be argumentative and post doomsday calls unimpeded. It's not healthy for any trader to see all this negative shit all the time.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Complete nonsense. While most recent numbers have dropped somewhat from the highest levels in past decades they stay stubbornly high. Nothing whatsoever hints at inflation abating significantly.

By the way, there is a tradeoff between annual rates of change and monthly changes. Monthly rates of change are heavily impacted by short term fluctuations and seasonality effects. You fully take into account the most recent monthly changes when you observe multiple annual changes of rate but the advantage is that you removed seasonality effects. Both approaches fully reflect the most recent changes, but one is cleaner than the other and less volatile because a lot of noise was removed.

To your other argument, everyone knows that monetary policy has a lagging effect on the entire economy. However policy makers have by now made it blatantly clear that they rather over than undershoot. We need to see a complete equity crash 2023 to witness any of the benchmark rates lower by end of 2023 than today.

There won't be a crash in 2023. 2024 will roll in and you'll try to pretend you never said there would be a crash. This is how you guys work. The changes in inflation the last 5 months are not seasonal or meaningless they are quite large actually. And again, far bigger drops then were expected. Inflation will be lower and markets won't have crashed barring some new, unforeseen black swan like WW3 or another massive deadly global virus.

So you say "Nothing whatsoever hints at inflation abating significantly.". This is a horrible take. Only a severe bias would allow you to make such a statement. The debate right now isn't will inflation drop. It's whether it'll settle in at 2% or 3% or 4%. I don't see 2% as being the natural rate. Overshooting ? They already did because they want 2%. I don't agree with that policy it creates more negatives then positives.

 

[M.W.]

Don't bullshit around Nine_Ender. You spoke of "broad" and "diversified" markets all year long and how they won't suffer. Sure you commented a lot on energy markets as well but you comments on broad markets were mostly and almost entirely bullish. Even the few posts I linked to reflect that. And your last comment only sums up and supports my statements in that being negative is actually perfectly fine if it reflects the true sentiment in markets which has been NEGATIVE all year. It leads to correct position taking and alignment WITH the market, not against it.

And then you post in another thread and label "permabears" right after you vehemently opposed others labeling you a permabull. Hypocrite.

Getting labelled a "permabull" on here says more about the posters saying it then how I address markets. Perhaps you lack the ability to understand the nuance of being bullish a sector ( Cdn energy ) and broader markets. I could list every reference I made about IT since Jan 1, 2021 on here it's not bullish at all. In reality you just want to be argumentative and post doomsday calls unimpeded. It's not healthy for any trader to see all this negative shit all the time.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Just saying.

A word on the permabears on here. They constantly expect crashes, are unwilling to admit when they are wrong, and persist for many years. It's almost as if long term failure makes them feel that markets owe them a crash. Markets don't give a shit about what day traders are doing or that these guys want a one way market to short.

I have a habit of posting data and looking at whether people's forecasts turn out. The big bears on the board are the worst they make massive errors. As much as 100-130% on an index which is ridiculous. Perhaps I'm wasting my time the Calhoun's of the world claim even their bad forecasts are supposedly wonderful calls. The data says otherwise but they are emotional traders who spurn research and data analysis 90% of the time.

Guessing where indexes will go is always a rough guess but I've done better then most on here ( in 2019 I guessed the year end close almost to the number ). My guess is a fairly choppy SPX and TSX but green by year end. Let's say up 10% on the SPX, maybe 15% on the TSX. QQQ I have no opinion or positions. I think QQQ is tradable short term but a useless risky investment in 2023. I'd rather just own GOOG then QQQ, but I'll need a better reason then now to buy either.

 

[M.W.]

A second ago you labeled those who use the term "permabull" and now this, lol. You are the biggest shister and hypocrite on this forum.

A word on the permabears on here. They constantly expect crashes, are unwilling to admit when they are wrong, and persist for many years. It's almost as if long term failure makes them feel that markets owe them a crash. Markets don't give a shit about what day traders are doing or that these guys want a one way market to short.

I have a habit of posting data and looking at whether people's forecasts turn out. The big bears on the board are the worst they make massive errors. As much as 100-130% on an index which is ridiculous. Perhaps I'm wasting my time the Calhoun's of the world claim even their bad forecasts are supposedly wonderful calls. The data says otherwise but they are emotional traders who spurn research and data analysis 90% of the time.

Guessing where indexes will go is always a rough guess but I've done better then most on here ( in 2019 I guessed the year end close almost to the number ). My guess is a fairly choppy SPX and TSX but green by year end. Let's say up 10% on the SPX, maybe 15% on the TSX. QQQ I have no opinion or positions. I think QQQ is tradable short term but a useless risky investment in 2023. I'd rather just own GOOG then QQQ, but I'll need a better reason then now to buy either.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Don't bullshit around Nine_Ender. You spoke of "broad" and "diversified" markets all year long and how they won't suffer. Sure you commented a lot on energy markets as well but you comments on broad markets were mostly and almost entirely bullish. Even the few posts I linked to reflect that.

No, that is completely false. The only time I got even moderately bullish about broader markets was at or close to the yearly lows. I never got bullish about broader IT since most of 2021 actually.

 

[M.W.]

What a liar

No, that is completely false. The only time I got even moderately bullish about broader markets was at or close to the yearly lows. I never got bullish about broader IT since most of 2021 actually.

 

[M.W.]

Again you make up bullshit. I never said there will be a crash in 2023. I said unless markets crash in 2023, rates won't be lowered next year.

You are the lucky one to end up on my block list because you are a liar who does not even stand by his own past posts and is a hypocrite.

There won't be a crash in 2023. 2024 will roll in and you'll try to pretend you never said there would be a crash. This is how you guys work. The changes in inflation the last 5 months are not seasonal or meaningless they are quite large actually. And again, far bigger drops then were expected. Inflation will be lower and markets won't have crashed barring some new, unforeseen black swan like WW3 or another massive deadly global virus.

So you say "Nothing whatsoever hints at inflation abating significantly.". This is a horrible take. Only a severe bias would allow you to make such a statement. The debate right now isn't will inflation drop. It's whether it'll settle in at 2% or 3% or 4%. I don't see 2% as being the natural rate. Overshooting ? They already did because they want 2%. I don't agree with that policy it creates more negatives then positives.