RM's occasional market calls...

Winter is coming for H&R Block stock (symbol: HRB). Their entire business model is charging people to file simple tax returns, but now people suddenly have easy ways to file their taxes for free. Heard of CreditKarma? They do free tax returns now. H&R Block is on the fast track to complete obsolescence. Stock at $21.41, you’ll see it below $15 this year. Remember Eastman Kodak stock dropping 99.5% because the world moved on from chemical film? It's that sort of thing, you'll see.
 
Rearden Metal said:
POSTED: Aug 26, 2015

I get off on making predictions and being correct a supernatural degree of the time. Most of them have been market calls, but once in a while I’ll say something like this:

As I’ve said since 2006, Hillary will never be president, and I’m still surprised so many people think she’s even capable of winning a U.S. presidential election. It’s just so obvious that she lacks the minimum charisma required, and charisma is most of the battle. She could easily not even make it past the Democratic nomination, just like 2008.

However I’m beginning to fear that we as a nation are actually stupid enough to put Donald Trump in the White House. If he’s the nominee running against Hillary, it would be ‘Fake vs. Real’ (personalities, not politics), and ‘real’ would win. If you thought Bush Jr. went around making bold aggressive moves that ended in Greek Tragedies, Trump would make him look like a responsible adult by comparison.
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Since nobody is giving you props on this call, I will. Market has been ripping higher and this stock has drifted lower. I think tax reform is what is really going to do this stock in. Whether or not it happens this year doesn't matter. It's getting discounted from the future cash flows. Sooner or later when this market corrects, this stock will hit your target pretty easily. The target seems kind of mild to me actually. Anyway, good call so far at least on the relative value performance!
 
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