RM's occasional market calls...

What is the benefit of shorting DGAZ vs. buying UGAZ? I would think it is much easier to just buy UGAZ.

I'm still thinking that after mid-January, things will start looking better for Nat Gas. I think the weather is going to get colder by then. The Nat Gas producers will probably cut back since the hedge contracts have reset in the new year, and the rig count will really drop because it no longer pays to pump oil and the banks are no longer willing to adjust their loans to these oil producers. There will be a consolidation in the US industry, the big ones like Chesapeake Energy will survive...the rest will go bankrupt. I don't think the NG prices will spike up, but it will revert to the mean.

But this is what trading is all about. I know many big and successful commodity traders, they don't even look at a chart. They rely on weather reports, seasonal cues, and physical reports...and it has worked for decades, and it will continue to work.
 
After a trade that ugly. I have no right to be coy about my thought process this time.
For over a decade the general rule was that shorting a triple leveraged bear ETF performs better than buying the corresponding triple leveraged bull ETF, for the simple reason that all triple leveraged ETF's get dragged down naturally over time. If the current situation is in fact 4% fees and 150% margin, I need to rethink my general rules. However, if you look at where UGAZ was priced on my entry days (Dec 4th and Dec. 7th), shorting DGAZ performed far better, assuming there's no stealth 4% fee as someone mentioned.
 
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Rearden Metal said:
What's my record on this thread? About 30 winning trades with 1 or 2 losers? If there's a better market call thread anywhere on the net, I'd really love to see it.
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Your first position was 16.93, averaging at least once higher and covering at 16, ended up being a winner didn't it?
 
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