You were correct that Bill Ackman did not plan to buy a huge stake in ADT, and this is probably a big reason for the decline in ADT stock today.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-31/bill-ackmans-2-billion-bet?google_editors_picks=true
RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
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You were correct that Bill Ackman did not plan to buy a huge stake in ADT, and this is probably a big reason for the decline in ADT stock today.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-31/bill-ackmans-2-billion-bet?google_editors_picks=true
Anyone here shorted ADT or is short ADT and wants to post their positions ?
I've always liked the transparency of RM in his journal.
I've always liked the transparency of RM in his journal.
Some of it as I don't intend to disclose my trading intimacy with the anonymous.
Tough being short anything in this market, i got owned on all my shorts even though i predicted the most recent top accurately, i added to everything when it bounced all the way until it turned into massive losers.
Its like death by a thousand cuts, market gaps up quarter point or more every second day on no volume, and it always looks like a decent add, but then it just flat lines at best grinds higher at worst.
It's tough when you short an uptrend with no resistance in the bigger picture, like people shorting the indices and strong companies with mega uptrends.
However, ADT has a defined downtrend in the daily, which is not the case of the overall sentiment of the market.
BBRY is that a tough short too ?
Same reasoning.
I think Rearden only bet on the ADT earnings report. When the earnings report is positive he exit. I really do not know what he pay for his options compare to his $40.87 short on the last trade. But he exit when he know is time.
Not exactly $40.87:
So now my ADT position is down to very small size, still long some Jan puts. Honestly, my enthusiasm for this one has greatly diminished now. I'm kind of impressed that they were able to come in with revenues as expected, yet still beat by 9 cents via cost cutting measures. The short-term catalyst has passed, and my conviction level is way down.
So please don't continue to hold large ADT short positions because of me, because ADT is kind of played out now IMO, and I'm already searching for my next big idea. Current price: $39.90.