What the gentleman said.
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RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
What the gentleman said.
Time to look at GC on the short side again, given that the futures markets like to breakdown from breakout (fakeout) formations...
Methinks the *real* reaction to scaled back QE has started...
Methinks the *real* reaction to scaled back QE has started...
Quote from Datradr:
fair enough...but u might as well just flip a coin then.
Most traders want some edge when the odds are in their favor --even if that edge is only 55% or 60% odds...earnings is anyones guess.....lbut hey as long as your making money
If he believes that the Hewitt prospects are lower then it will manifest itself through the earnings. That's his "edge". If he's trading a time series then he may or may not have an edge.
Crazy trading action, ADT has been all over the place today, new weekly highs, new weekly lows, it cant find direction but the whole upside attempt is looking like it will be fizzle.
No change shooting for 36s.
No change shooting for 36s.
Quote from Trader.Fighter:
Crazy trading action, ADT has been all over the place today, new weekly highs, new weekly lows, it cant find direction but the whole upside attempt is looking like it will be fizzle.
No change shooting for 36s.
It can't find direction? To me it looks clear that the direction is down! Massive sell off.
Attachments
Partial exit here at $40.40.
Exiting the rest of short-term ADT bear positions here at $40.56.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Quote from Trader.Fighter:
Premature imo, nothing will prevent this from testing mid 39s.
From page 68.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rearden Metal:
I have something semi-useful to say: It is possible to enhance returns on long-term positions by using shorter-term swing trades to add and reduce size as appropriate. For example, in ADT I was taking off a little bit when it was down at the bottom of the range. Now that ADT is back at the top ($44.69), I'm adding some size here.
Daring:
This worked great in this situation but had the range broken after you scaled out and begin the hard drop you been expecting, you could have missed the big drop on your best size, all because of a quick short term trade.
Rearden Metal:
I see what you mean, but in this case I'm only intending to hold my 'best size' for very short time periods, and only while it's near the range-top. As soon as it even gets down to mid-range I start reducing.
I'd never expect to have 'best size' on when and if I get the desired plunge.
Daring:
Unless you are expecting a long term consolidation before the plunge, it makes no sense to me, perhaps I'm missing something obvious that was mentioned in the past.
MrN:
I will hazard a guess: Mr. Metal's is making a tactical swing trade with part of the position within the context of his long term market view, which he initially expressed. With most stock related markets, expected value goes up after a decline, and down after a rise, so his tactics seem to account for this. His longer term view might be for a fall, but over a short duration, rises tend to follow declines, even in bad stocks.
Rearden Metal
Bingo!