RM's occasional market calls...

A good week for ADT bears, some much needed red after hitting some technical resistant levels.

Next week will be key and then onto earnings.

Where you hiding RM ? :)
 
keeping unhedged shorts when markets hitting new highs daily is not to my taste.

nothing suggests this trend will stop anytime soon.
 
Quote from toolazy:

keeping unhedged shorts when markets hitting new highs daily is not to my taste.

nothing suggests this trend will stop anytime soon.
More...

ADT is weak to ALL indices though, kind of relevant.
 
Quote from toolazy:

keeping unhedged shorts when markets hitting new highs daily is not to my taste.

nothing suggests this trend will stop anytime soon.
More...
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On the page 11 Rearden is talking about news for earnings of ADT on 31 July. I am not sure but I think Rearden is not saying ADT will go down always. I think Rearden bet his puts of August will be in the money for that time. In that time he can win.

Edit I am sorry, the page is 114.
 
I had covered my position on ADT on what I thought it would be temporary support before earnings

Today I used the opportunity to reload the short position on retracement up with better prices.

Looking for 36.50 this year.
 
I have to disagree about buying flat puts before an earnings announcement...to me that is pure gambling...if you have a long term view then fine...or if you doing straddles or something like that then maybe...but estimatting earnings is rolling the dice.

I know RM has a more macro view of why it should be lower...but Trader fighter arent u risking cash right before earning for no real reason?
 
like 70% of an average stocks variance comes from earnings.

And probably more for a declining stock. So if you are going to bet on a stock declining, you almost have to have a view on earnings.
 
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