RM's occasional market calls...

IMO, spooz are currently overbought, but not overvalued. There's a big difference between the two.

I'm not willing to position either way at this point, however.
 
I piled most of my capital into 2 longs that haven't moved as much as I thought. It sucks because I didn't have room for some tech and oil stocks that I really liked and have moved well.

I'm not sure if I should sell, I have no short positions on but I'm getting uneasy and have a feeling tomorrow is going to be volatile and I think downwards. I don't know if something is going down in the world tomorrow, but I'm feeling uncomfortable maybe its because my 2 longs are not moving at all lol :confused:. Going to take some small gains for put option purchase..
 
Quote from Blotto:


I can't speak directly to what the hedge funds own, but we've had a timely comment about "trend followers":



Then any self respecting trend follower is likely to be squeezed to 1500.
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The trend follower comment was from Rearden: "Are the trend following hedge funds still long a boatload of gold? This is important to figure out."

Gold topped in September 2011 at $1920. It's unlikely that any fund with a trend-following strategy is still long after a 1 1/2 year bear market which saw prices fall 30%. The only big holders still likely to be long are those who are happy to hold against a major trend.

For big funds, 2-3% moves (what you are aiming for) are their slippage. None of them are going to be squeezed by a 2% move to 1500. They have either been squeezed already during the $165 per ounce rally, or would be squeezed by a break significantly above resistance e.g. 1575-1600.

The only people who will be squeezed by a move to 1500 are those who are playing the recent $40 (<3%) mini-range with close stops just above the highs - not something that large trend-following funds tend to do.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

Here's an idea (not an official 'on the record' trade). With the Japanese printing presses running full speed these days, putting even our own to shame, shorting the JPY on bounces has been a consistently juicy trade lately. In case you've been waiting for an entry point, right here, right now (June at 0.010199) might be something to consider.

I can't approach this trade with any confidence though, because it <i>is</i> a currency trade after all. Currencies are NOT my friends.
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It would have worked out okay this time (after a couple days of heat), but me and currencies still don't get along.
 
Gold's finally behaving nicely, but ADT's been indifferent to the short. I covered and re-entered higher, but still am taking on a bit of heat.

Regardless, I'm on the same page with your LT fundamentals read, and this buying spree after missed estimates seems half-hearted. Definitely liking adding on near $45, and particularly today. But... caveat being my stops would be a lot tighter and I'd stay on the sidelines and wait for a while, this time, if they get hit. Just my own humble read, but anyone else still liking this short?
 
Quote from Samsara:

Gold's finally behaving nicely, but ADT's been indifferent to the short. I covered and re-entered higher, but still am taking on a bit of heat.

Regardless, I'm on the same page with your LT fundamentals read, and this buying spree after missed estimates seems half-hearted. Definitely liking adding on near $45, and particularly today. Just my own humble read, but anyone else still liking this short?
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Here's how I intend to play ADT going forward: Since the market can 'stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent', I'll keep light size on generally, adding significant size before each earnings report. It appears ADT management is the kind that denies they have a problem for as long as they possibly can- This makes negative pre-announcements less likely IMO.

P.S. You know what would be interesting? If JGB's were to crash on Monday...
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

Here's how I intend to play ADT going forward: Since the market can 'stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent', I'll keep light size on generally, adding significant size before each earnings report. It appears ADT management is the kind that denies they have a problem for as long as they possibly can- This makes negative pre-announcements less likely IMO.

P.S. You know what would be interesting? If JGB's were to crash on Monday...
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Very interesting idea. Sizing up into earnings is an approach I've always avoided without a LT prior position, but taking a position based on how likely a company would hide their weak hand in denial: I like that. Especially given that's exactly what happened, whereas ADT's price otherwise seems a lot more random.

Actually started to think about jgbs after reading Krugman's op-ed this morning. More of a curiosity though, since I've never had any luck with anything tied to political risk, unless it's a currency pair that's momentarily correlated with an index.
 
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