I am curious why Rearden (feel) ADT go down in the time he bet. Is Rearden (feel) sentiment bearish of stock investors of ADT who can see competition from comcast and others?
Very nice to you Rearden!
Very nice to you Rearden!
RM's occasional market calls...
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
Quote from FreakofNature:
Mr RM,
You mentioned earlier you expecting at least a 5% pullback in US indices.
When do we short ?
Oh, I'm not eager to short spooz here at all! We got sharp May selloffs three years in a row, and I wasn't going to get long going into May. I wouldn't get short though unless we saw some kind of confirmation, which is the exact opposite of what we have now.
And Trendlover, ADT is a pure fundamentals play. They reported weakish numbers this weak, and I expect that to keep happening repeatedly going forward. ADT's CEO was specifically asked about new competitors moving in on their turf in the earnings conference call. His reply was to mock T's product as "difficult to configure", and completely minimize the problem. We'll just see about that...
Hoping you wish to do a little teaching on top of amaze in your journal.
What does confirmation look like to you and on which timeframe ?
Thanks
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3793782>
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3016498#post3016498
I always thought it would be that way.
I cant see why anyone would start teaching or giving away details of a good trading method unless they are too trigger shy to trade it themselves-- and thus selling it is the only way for them to make any money from it.
Enough folks entering at the same time, placing their stops around there, etc....
could create noise, or slippage....
Even much-maligned TA leader Nodoji recognized that, and never gave away many details!!
Like Atticus posted in another thread-- he knows two guys making millions in futures, but they don't talk because they dont want to draw attention to their niche.
TA leader? That's a new one! Much maligned? Perhaps there was a reason.
Unfortunately most do not have the savvy to tell the difference between somebody who knows but will not share in public (RM and others) and an empty vessel making the most noise (Nodoji). To be honest, its more than a little insulting to RM to put him in the same category as Nodoji.
There is a difference between a market professional who understands what is what and has put up serious profits over their career and a noisy Internet blowhard. Unfortunately the general public treat the experienced professionals the same as the wanabee gurus who need the attention and tolerate the fawning. I think it was RM who drew this analogy some time ago: it really is the equivalent of going right up to a strange girl in a bar and asking "Wanna fuck?". No finesse.
We all had to start somewhere and those who have survived the school of hard knocks might be willing to offer a little help from time to time. To serious, diligent, hard working, aspirants who show evidence of independent thought. Maybe. But certainly not at the expense of the continued viability of hard won edges. Yep, a well earned yellow card indeed.
Not putting him in the same category as ND-- not at all.
I do, however, believe she is profitable (but not to the extent that she alludes to) and is holding back details...
my point was that it isn't just heavy hitter who hold things back-- even a small time player like ND is holding back details.
I notice she has begun posting at a competitor site, under a new name. Obvious who it is to anyone with good pattern recognition skills. I won't reveal any more than that!
Apologies to RM for taking it off topic....
RM,
Got the message loud and clear, thanks for the calls, lot of respect for doing what you do.
I appreciate all the understanding, especially from Blotto!
So I just dug up that ancient post you happened to remember:
08-08-06
Ever since I decided to raise my profile by posting my numbers here, I've been getting a ton of PM's- mostly from guys who want me to teach them. Please don't be offended if I don't answer yours. It's not personal- there's just way too many, and I'm kind of overwhelmed.
I should probably compose a FAQ and/or some form letter replies to recurring questions.
The following part may sound arrogant, but I just have to speak my mind, as I always do: Here is a small sampling of the contents of my inbox. None of these are from anyone I know :
"what indicators do you use"/ "can i ask how you trade. read the tape, or time&sales? or anything else?"/ "how do you determine likely market direction"/ "what riskto reward ratios do you use"/ "Any chance u would share some trading secrets? I would love to see how you do it or some type of methods!"/"what's your strategy?"/ "If you were to categorize your style, what would it be? Momentum, Buying pullbacks, Mean Reversion, Breakouts?"/ "what do you base your trades on? Do you read the tape or do you use technical setups?/ " Do you only trade stocks that have news on them that day?"/ "If you are a tape reader, then how do you trade the nasdaq and the spyders???"
...there's more. MUCH MUCH more, but I think you get the idea.
<b>Messaging such questions to someone like me is like hitting on a girl in a bar, and after a couple minutes, asking her: "Wanna fuck"?</b> You need finesse to get laid! Didn't you guys see Wall Street? Bud Fox didn't 'bag the elephant' by just asking nicely a couple times- no! Bud did his homework, finding out all he could about the man. He found out exactly which hard-to-acquire items Gordon Gekko wanted, and then he delivered them.
Gordon Gekko wanted a certain brand of embargoed Cuban cigars and illegal inside information. That's how you bag the elephant.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1159892&highlight=elephant#post1159892
Damn, I used to put myself in the same pachydermous category as Gordon Gekko? Seven years later, and I still haven't reached that level. At least I <i>did</i> learn to tone down the arrogance a notch or two.
So I just dug up that ancient post you happened to remember:
08-08-06
Ever since I decided to raise my profile by posting my numbers here, I've been getting a ton of PM's- mostly from guys who want me to teach them. Please don't be offended if I don't answer yours. It's not personal- there's just way too many, and I'm kind of overwhelmed.
I should probably compose a FAQ and/or some form letter replies to recurring questions.
The following part may sound arrogant, but I just have to speak my mind, as I always do: Here is a small sampling of the contents of my inbox. None of these are from anyone I know :
"what indicators do you use"/ "can i ask how you trade. read the tape, or time&sales? or anything else?"/ "how do you determine likely market direction"/ "what riskto reward ratios do you use"/ "Any chance u would share some trading secrets? I would love to see how you do it or some type of methods!"/"what's your strategy?"/ "If you were to categorize your style, what would it be? Momentum, Buying pullbacks, Mean Reversion, Breakouts?"/ "what do you base your trades on? Do you read the tape or do you use technical setups?/ " Do you only trade stocks that have news on them that day?"/ "If you are a tape reader, then how do you trade the nasdaq and the spyders???"
...there's more. MUCH MUCH more, but I think you get the idea.
<b>Messaging such questions to someone like me is like hitting on a girl in a bar, and after a couple minutes, asking her: "Wanna fuck"?</b> You need finesse to get laid! Didn't you guys see Wall Street? Bud Fox didn't 'bag the elephant' by just asking nicely a couple times- no! Bud did his homework, finding out all he could about the man. He found out exactly which hard-to-acquire items Gordon Gekko wanted, and then he delivered them.
Gordon Gekko wanted a certain brand of embargoed Cuban cigars and illegal inside information. That's how you bag the elephant.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1159892&highlight=elephant#post1159892
Damn, I used to put myself in the same pachydermous category as Gordon Gekko? Seven years later, and I still haven't reached that level. At least I <i>did</i> learn to tone down the arrogance a notch or two.
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You have combination of fundamentals and intuition. You do.