RM's occasional market calls...

Decided to add to my position here.

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This is a bizarre scenario that I didn't see coming at all. Apparently, you did. I was wondering if GLD had to fill that gap up to 142.85, but since it's such a derivative product, I kept trying to tell myself that gap didn't matter. Perhaps it did after all. Since that $25 plummet came as such a surprise to me, I think I need half an hour or so to step back and re-evaluate. Hedges were taken off on the way down, so if it goes all the way back up now I'll be REALLY pissed...
 
I think putting out my market calls here could be messing me up a little bit, since I feel so 'responsible' for them, and felt kinda obligated to call out my short term hedging (which I completely screwed up, btw), putting on hedges, taking off hedges.... This shit needs to change RIGHT NOW. I'll put out the occasional long term call, but whether I do or don't hedge short-term moves, I won't be able to disclose any of that from now on. You can see why.
 
So here's a killer idea for a hedge fund that I don't mind giving away for free, because I know I'd never pull off putting something like this together: You get a team of intelligent dudes together to scour the net for anyone who can put out consistently awesome or consistently terrible market calls. (Perma-bulls and perma-bears don't count) With a few thousand man-hours of work, you put together a nice long list of (mostly anonymous) sources, who probably couldn't be trusted on their own, but by allocating just a tiny fraction of AUM to each one, the whole is far more trustworthy than the parts would be alone, kind of like a junk-bond fund or a fund of funds. Then your team constantly monitors these sources, especially looking for correlation between them. New sources are also constantly developed.

I actually think this could work, I really do.
 
Quote from Josef K:

I'm out of this for now because I think that there might be another bounce. Cost basis was $52,325, gross profit was $12,675.

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Nice trade!
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

So here's a killer idea for a hedge fund that I don't mind giving away for free, because I know I'd never pull off putting something like this together: You get a team of intelligent dudes together to scour the net for anyone who can put out consistently awesome or consistently terrible market calls. (Perma-bulls and perma-bears don't count) With a few thousand man-hours of work, you put together a nice long list of (mostly anonymous) sources, who probably couldn't be trusted on their own, but by allocating just a tiny fraction of AUM to each one, the whole is far more trustworthy than the parts would be alone, kind of like a junk-bond fund or a fund of funds. Then your team constantly monitors these sources, especially looking for correlation between them. New sources are also constantly developed.

I actually think this could work, I really do.
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share same opinion. It will work. just need to have at least 20 guys in the portfolio.
 
Quote from gmst:

share same opinion. It will work. just need to have at least 20 guys in the portfolio.
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I was thinking <b>at least</b> 100. Put in enough work with a big/competent enough team, and even a few hundred consistent sources could be found, IMO.

Also; Real nice work, Joe! Enjoy your champagne, blow, and sluts this weekend!
 
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